Alavés vs Celta Vigo prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Celta Vigo vs Alavés, 2026-10-18, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 17:15 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•14:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Celta Vigo

VS14:15 GMT

Alavés

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.28

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

40%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

46%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 1.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Celta VigoX2 Alavés

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Celta Vigo (1)	42.3%	43.2%	2.31	trending_up+1.0 pp
Draw (X)	30.2%	30.7%	3.26	trending_up+0.5 pp
Alavés (2)	27.6%	26.1%	3.84	trending_down-1.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

Over 1.5 goals

Our probability: 68%.

Odds: 1.40

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Alavés

PROBABILITY

13.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.7Exp. cards 4.3

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Celta Vigo

42%2.362.25

Draw

29%3.453.15

Alavés

29%3.493.45

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Celta Vigo or draw

71%1.40—

Alavés or draw

58%1.74—

Either team wins (no draw)

71%1.41—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

67%1.501.45

Under 1.5 goals

33%3.012.65

Over 2.5 goals

40%2.522.30

Under 2.5 goals

60%1.661.63

Over 3.5 goals

20%5.114.20

Under 3.5 goals

80%1.241.20

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

46%2.18—

Not both score (NG)

54%1.85—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

60%1.671.32

Under 7.5 corners

40%2.493.00

Over 8.5 corners

48%2.071.65

Under 8.5 corners

52%1.942.10

Over 9.5 corners

37%2.672.10

Under 9.5 corners

63%1.601.65

Over 10.5 corners

28%3.582.75

Under 10.5 corners

72%1.391.37

Over 11.5 corners

20%4.98—

Under 11.5 corners

80%1.25—

Over 12.5 corners

14%7.17—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.16—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.09—

Under 1.5 cards

9%11.71—

Over 2.5 cards

79%1.26—

Under 2.5 cards

21%4.81—

Over 3.5 cards

62%1.621.45

Under 3.5 cards

38%2.612.45

Over 4.5 cards

43%2.332.10

Under 4.5 cards

57%1.751.65

Over 5.5 cards

27%3.72—

Under 5.5 cards

73%1.37—

Over 6.5 cards

15%6.51—

Under 6.5 cards

85%1.18—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Celta Vigo

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 7-4

DLWDL

LHJuventus1-2

DAElche0-0

WHRacing Santander5-0

LAOmonia Nicosia0-1

DHMálaga1-1

Alavés

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 7-7

WLLDL

LHAtlético Madrid1-2

DAAthletic Club0-0

LHValencia0-1

LARacing Santander1-2

WHOsasuna5-2

Head-to-head

2026-03-22

Celta Vigo3 - 4Alavés

2025-11-22

Alavés0 - 1Celta Vigo

2025-01-27

Alavés1 - 1Celta Vigo

2024-08-16

Celta Vigo2 - 1Alavés

2024-04-27

Alavés3 - 0Celta Vigo

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Team comparison

Celta Vigo

VS

Alavés

#50 ▲3Power Index 62.7

Power Ranking

#68Power Index 58.8

€178m8th in the league

Squad value

€73m19th in the league

Claudio Giráldezsince 12 Mar 2024 · 117 games · 1.47 pts/game

Head coach

Quique Sánchez Floressince 3 Mar 2026 · 20 games · 1.35 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

42%Market 43%

Draw (X)

29%Market 30%

Away win (2)

29%Market 27%

Over 2.5 goals

40%Market 41%

Both teams to score

46%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Alavés (13.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 013.1%
2. 1 - 113.1%
3. 0 - 010.3%
4. 0 - 110.3%
5. 2 - 08.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Alavés

Goals scored by Celta Vigo

012345010.310.35.11.70.40.1113.113.16.52.20.50.128.48.44.21.40.30.133.63.61.80.60.10.041.11.10.60.20.00.050.30.30.10.00.00.0

Next matches of Celta Vigo

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeReal Betis

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayRayo Vallecano

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante

Next matches of Alavés

23/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeMálaga

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

6/11/2026 · ESP.1AwaySevilla

Our model gives Celta Vigo win 42%, draw 29%, Alavés win 29%. over 2.5 goals 40%. both teams to score 46%. expected goals 1.28 - 1.00. largest gap to the market: Alavés win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.