Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen prediction, tips and odds
Next scheduled meeting: Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen, 17/1/2027, ned.1. Analysis and tips appear 1-2 days before kickoff.
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.52
MODEL OVER 2.5
68%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
67%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
Both teams to score (GG)
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen (1) | 27.3% | 27% | 3.71 | trending_flat-0.3 pp |
| Draw (X) | 22.4% | 23.6% | 4.24 | trending_up+1.2 pp |
| Ajax Amsterdam (2) | 50.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | trending_down-0.9 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Both teams to score (GG)
Our probability: 67%.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
FC Groningen 1 - 2 Ajax Amsterdam
9.1%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
FC Groningen
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 13-7
Excelsior5-1
PEC Zwolle3-0
Go Ahead Eagles1-1
FC Twente2-2
Fortuna Sittard2-3
Ajax Amsterdam
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 14-7
Hajduk Split1-2
NEC Nijmegen1-1Excelsior2-2
Willem II5-1Fortuna Sittard5-1Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: FC Groningen 1 - 2 Ajax Amsterdam (9.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 29.1%
- 1 - 18.9%
- 2 - 26.7%
- 2 - 16.6%
- 1 - 36.2%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by Ajax AmsterdamNext matches of FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ AlkmaarNext matches of Ajax Amsterdam
Sparta RotterdamAZ AlkmaarFC TwenteMore matches on this day
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Our model gives FC Groningen win 28%, draw 22%, Ajax Amsterdam win 50%. over 2.5 goals 68%. both teams to score 67%. expected goals 1.48 - 2.04. largest gap to the market: Ajax Amsterdam win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.