AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland, 2026-10-18, English Premier League, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•13:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

AFC Bournemouth

VS13:00 GMT

Sunderland

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.68

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

50%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

54%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AFC BournemouthX2 Sunderland

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AFC Bournemouth (1)	44.7%	44.5%	2.25	trending_flat-0.2 pp
Draw (X)	27.5%	28.2%	3.55	trending_up+0.7 pp
Sunderland (2)	27.9%	27.3%	3.66	trending_down-0.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 Sunderland

PROBABILITY

12.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 4.1

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AFC Bournemouth

47%2.152.15

Draw

26%3.853.50

Sunderland

27%3.653.45

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AFC Bournemouth or draw

73%1.38—

Sunderland or draw

53%1.87—

Either team wins (no draw)

74%1.35—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

75%1.331.27

Under 1.5 goals

25%4.023.40

Over 2.5 goals

50%2.001.90

Under 2.5 goals

50%2.001.90

Over 3.5 goals

28%3.563.00

Under 3.5 goals

72%1.391.35

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

54%1.86—

Not both score (NG)

46%2.16—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.40—

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.50—

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.45

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.562.45

Over 9.5 corners

50%2.001.85

Under 9.5 corners

50%2.001.85

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.522.35

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.661.50

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.293.15

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.441.30

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.45—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.29—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

90%1.11—

Under 1.5 cards

10%10.37—

Over 2.5 cards

77%1.301.28

Under 2.5 cards

23%4.333.20

Over 3.5 cards

58%1.711.70

Under 3.5 cards

42%2.412.02

Over 4.5 cards

40%2.53—

Under 4.5 cards

60%1.65—

Over 5.5 cards

24%4.16—

Under 5.5 cards

76%1.32—

Over 6.5 cards

13%7.48—

Under 6.5 cards

87%1.15—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER36%

add_circleAFC Bournemouth

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.63

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AFC Bournemouth

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 8-9

DWLLW

WHSK Sturm Graz3-0

LAChelsea1-5

LHLiverpool0-1

WAReal Sociedad2-1

DHBrentford2-2

Sunderland

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-10

LWLLW

WATorreense2-1

LHBrighton & Hove Albion0-2

LAManchester City3-5

WHAZ Alkmaar1-0

LHArsenal0-2

Head-to-head

2026-02-28

AFC Bournemouth1 - 1Sunderland

2025-11-29

Sunderland3 - 2AFC Bournemouth

2017-04-29

Sunderland0 - 1AFC Bournemouth

2016-11-05

AFC Bournemouth1 - 2Sunderland

2016-01-23

Sunderland1 - 1AFC Bournemouth

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Team comparison

AFC Bournemouth

VS

Sunderland

#21Power Index 74.1

Power Ranking

#76 ▲2Power Index 56.9

€574m11th in the league

Squad value

€421m14th in the league

Marco Rosesince 1 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 1.50 pts/game

Head coach

Régis Le Brissince 1 Jul 2024 · 103 games · 1.51 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

47%Market 45%

Draw (X)

26%Market 27%

Away win (2)

27%Market 28%

Over 2.5 goals

50%Market 50%

Both teams to score

54%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 Sunderland (12.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.0%
2. 1 - 010.6%
3. 2 - 19.3%
4. 2 - 08.2%
5. 0 - 17.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Sunderland

Goals scored by AFC Bournemouth

01234506.97.84.41.70.50.1110.612.06.82.60.70.228.29.35.32.00.60.134.24.82.71.00.30.141.61.91.10.40.10.050.50.60.30.10.00.0

Next matches of AFC Bournemouth

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayIpswich Town

Next matches of Sunderland

25/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United

31/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayCoventry City

8/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeChelsea

Our model gives AFC Bournemouth win 47%, draw 26%, Sunderland win 27%. over 2.5 goals 50%. both teams to score 54%. expected goals 1.55 - 1.13. largest gap to the market: AFC Bournemouth win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.