AS Monaco vs Lorient prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Lorient vs AS Monaco, 2026-10-18, French Ligue 1, kickoff 18:15 Athens time

stadiumFRENCH LIGUE 1•15:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Lorient

VS15:15 GMT

AS Monaco

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.62

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

49%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 10.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.43

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 LorientX2 AS Monaco

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Lorient (1)	26.2%	26.2%	3.81	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Draw (X)	28.2%	28.2%	3.55	trending_flat+0.0 pp
AS Monaco (2)	45.6%	45.6%	2.19	trending_flat+0.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

Under 10.5 corners

Expected corners: Lorient 3.8, AS Monaco 5.1, total 8.9 (line 10.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Lorient x0.79, AS Monaco x1.02 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.43

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lorient 1 - 1 AS Monaco

PROBABILITY

12.2%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.9Exp. cards 3.6

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lorient

28%3.583.65

Draw

26%3.783.40

AS Monaco

46%2.192.10

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lorient or draw

54%1.84—

AS Monaco or draw

72%1.39—

Either team wins (no draw)

74%1.36—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

74%1.351.30

Under 1.5 goals

26%3.863.30

Over 2.5 goals

49%2.051.90

Under 2.5 goals

51%1.951.90

Over 3.5 goals

27%3.723.05

Under 3.5 goals

73%1.371.33

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.89—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.12—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

63%1.591.30

Under 7.5 corners

37%2.693.15

Over 8.5 corners

51%1.941.57

Under 8.5 corners

49%2.062.25

Over 9.5 corners

40%2.472.02

Under 9.5 corners

60%1.681.70

Over 10.5 corners

31%3.262.60

Under 10.5 corners

69%1.441.40

Over 11.5 corners

22%4.47—

Under 11.5 corners

78%1.29—

Over 12.5 corners

16%6.34—

Under 12.5 corners

84%1.19—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

86%1.16—

Under 1.5 cards

14%7.26—

Over 2.5 cards

69%1.451.40

Under 2.5 cards

31%3.222.65

Over 3.5 cards

48%2.071.95

Under 3.5 cards

52%1.941.75

Over 4.5 cards

30%3.36—

Under 4.5 cards

70%1.42—

Over 5.5 cards

16%6.06—

Under 5.5 cards

84%1.20—

Over 6.5 cards

9%11.72—

Under 6.5 cards

91%1.09—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER35%

add_circleAS Monaco

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.63

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lorient

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 7-5

WDLWW

WHParis FC1-0

WHNantes2-1

LALe Mans1-2

DHToulouse2-2

WALens1-0

AS Monaco

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 9-5

DWWDW

WACSKA Sofia2-1

DHToulouse2-2

WHPisa2-0

WHLens2-1

DAStrasbourg1-1

Head-to-head

2026-01-16

AS Monaco1 - 3Lorient

2025-09-27

Lorient3 - 1AS Monaco

2024-03-17

AS Monaco2 - 2Lorient

2023-09-17

Lorient2 - 2AS Monaco

2023-04-16

AS Monaco3 - 1Lorient

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Lorient

VS

AS Monaco

#82 ▲1Power Index 55.5

Power Ranking

#42 ▼3Power Index 65.7

€99m12th in the league

Squad value

€378m2nd in the league

Alexandre Dujeuxsince 1 Jul 2026 · 7 games · 1.57 pts/game

Head coach

Filipe Luíssince 6 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 2.30 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

28%Market 26%

Draw (X)

26%Market 28%

Away win (2)

46%Market 46%

Over 2.5 goals

49%Market 50%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 1.5

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lorient 1 - 1 AS Monaco (12.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.2%
2. 0 - 110.9%
3. 1 - 29.2%
4. 0 - 28.2%
5. 1 - 08.1%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AS Monaco

Goals scored by Lorient

01234507.310.98.24.11.50.518.112.29.24.61.70.524.66.85.12.61.00.331.72.61.91.00.40.140.50.70.50.30.10.050.10.20.10.10.00.0

Next matches of Lorient

25/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayAngers

31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeBrest

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLe Havre AC

Next matches of AS Monaco

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLille

1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis FC

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLe Mans

Our model gives Lorient win 28%, draw 26%, AS Monaco win 46%. over 2.5 goals 49%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.12 - 1.50. largest gap to the market: Lorient win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.