AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AC Milan vs Atalanta, 2026-10-18, Italian Serie A, kickoff 19:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•16:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

AC Milan

VS16:00 GMT

Atalanta

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.95

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

57%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

57%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AC MilanX2 Atalanta

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AC Milan (1)	52.7%	56.3%	1.78	trending_up+3.6 pp
Draw (X)	25.2%	24%	4.16	trending_down-1.1 pp
Atalanta (2)	22.2%	19.7%	5.08	trending_down-2.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Odds: 1.42

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AC Milan 1 - 1 Atalanta

PROBABILITY

10.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.5Exp. cards 3.1

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AC Milan

54%1.841.77

Draw

23%4.273.70

Atalanta

22%4.484.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AC Milan or draw

78%1.29—

Atalanta or draw

46%2.19—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.31—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

80%1.261.20

Under 1.5 goals

20%4.914.20

Over 2.5 goals

57%1.771.70

Under 2.5 goals

43%2.302.15

Over 3.5 goals

34%2.932.60

Under 3.5 goals

66%1.521.47

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

57%1.77—

Not both score (NG)

43%2.31—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

58%1.711.30

Under 7.5 corners

42%2.403.05

Over 8.5 corners

47%2.141.60

Under 8.5 corners

53%1.882.20

Over 9.5 corners

36%2.782.05

Under 9.5 corners

64%1.561.68

Over 10.5 corners

27%3.752.70

Under 10.5 corners

73%1.361.38

Over 11.5 corners

19%5.26—

Under 11.5 corners

81%1.23—

Over 12.5 corners

13%7.64—

Under 12.5 corners

87%1.15—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

80%1.25—

Under 1.5 cards

20%4.97—

Over 2.5 cards

59%1.711.50

Under 2.5 cards

41%2.412.35

Over 3.5 cards

37%2.722.20

Under 3.5 cards

63%1.581.60

Over 4.5 cards

20%4.94—

Under 4.5 cards

80%1.25—

Over 5.5 cards

10%9.87—

Under 5.5 cards

90%1.11—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER45%

add_circleAC Milan

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.04

BUILDER36%

add_circleAC Milan

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.56

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AC Milan

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 10-5

DLWDW

WARB Salzburg4-0

DASassuolo1-1

WHLecce3-0

LHBenfica0-2

DALazio2-2

Atalanta

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 8-8

LLLWW

WHPafos3-1

WHVenezia3-1

LAJuventus0-2

LHCagliari1-2

LAAS Roma1-2

Head-to-head

2026-05-10

AC Milan2 - 3Atalanta

2025-10-28

Atalanta1 - 1AC Milan

2025-04-20

AC Milan0 - 1Atalanta

2024-12-06

Atalanta2 - 1AC Milan

2024-02-25

AC Milan1 - 1Atalanta

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Team comparison

AC Milan

VS

Atalanta

#37 ▲5Power Index 67.2

Power Ranking

#32 ▲2Power Index 68.2

€503m4th in the league

Squad value

€449m6th in the league

Ruben Amorimsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.00 pts/game

Head coach

Maurizio Sarrisince 15 Jun 2026 · 10 games · 1.60 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

54%Market 54%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

22%Market 21%

Over 2.5 goals

57%Market 57%

Both teams to score

57%Market: —

Expected goals

1.8 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AC Milan 1 - 1 Atalanta (10.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.7%
2. 2 - 19.8%
3. 1 - 09.7%
4. 2 - 08.9%
5. 3 - 16.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Atalanta

Goals scored by AC Milan

01234505.25.83.21.20.30.119.710.75.92.20.60.128.99.85.42.00.60.135.56.03.31.20.30.142.52.81.50.60.20.050.91.00.60.20.10.0

Next matches of AC Milan

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayUdinese

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeBologna

31/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeInternazionale

Next matches of Atalanta

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeFrosinone

29/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayFiorentina

2/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeParma

Our model gives AC Milan win 54%, draw 23%, Atalanta win 22%. over 2.5 goals 57%. both teams to score 57%. expected goals 1.84 - 1.11. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.