Lyon vs Nice prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Lyon vs Nice, 2026-10-18, French Ligue 1, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumFRENCH LIGUE 1•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Lyon

VS18:45 GMT

Nice

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.94

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.48

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 LyonX2 Nice

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Lyon (1)	49%	52%	1.92	trending_up+3.0 pp
Draw (X)	25.5%	24.8%	4.04	trending_down-0.7 pp
Nice (2)	25.5%	23.3%	4.30	trending_down-2.2 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 66%.

Odds: 1.48

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lyon 1 - 1 Nice

PROBABILITY

11.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.5Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lyon

51%1.961.95

Draw

24%4.153.75

Nice

25%4.003.75

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lyon or draw

75%1.33—

Nice or draw

49%2.04—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

80%1.261.18

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.884.10

Over 2.5 goals

56%1.781.70

Under 2.5 goals

44%2.292.18

Over 3.5 goals

34%2.952.55

Under 3.5 goals

66%1.511.48

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.74—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.36—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

77%1.30—

Under 7.5 corners

23%4.33—

Over 8.5 corners

67%1.491.38

Under 8.5 corners

33%3.062.70

Over 9.5 corners

57%1.761.70

Under 9.5 corners

43%2.322.02

Over 10.5 corners

46%2.152.20

Under 10.5 corners

54%1.871.60

Over 11.5 corners

37%2.722.80

Under 11.5 corners

63%1.581.35

Over 12.5 corners

28%3.57—

Under 12.5 corners

72%1.39—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.14—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.98—

Over 2.5 cards

71%1.401.28

Under 2.5 cards

29%3.483.20

Over 3.5 cards

51%1.961.70

Under 3.5 cards

49%2.052.02

Over 4.5 cards

32%3.09—

Under 4.5 cards

68%1.48—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.45—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.22—

Over 6.5 cards

10%10.35—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER42%

add_circleLyon

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.22

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lyon

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 10-5

DWWLW

WHCrystal Palace3-2

LALens1-2

WHStade Rennais4-0

WAAnderlecht2-1

DAParis FC0-0

Nice

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 5-7

LDLWW

WHStrasbourg2-1

WHLille2-1

LAAJ Auxerre0-1

DHLe Mans1-1

LAParis FC0-3

Head-to-head

2026-02-15

Lyon2 - 0Nice

2025-10-18

Nice3 - 2Lyon

2025-03-09

Nice0 - 2Lyon

2024-12-01

Lyon4 - 1Nice

2024-02-16

Lyon1 - 0Nice

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Team comparison

Lyon

VS

Nice

#39 ▼1Power Index 66.6

Power Ranking

#104Power Index 51.8

€264m4th in the league

Squad value

€150m10th in the league

Paulo Fonsecasince 31 Jan 2025 · 80 games · 1.86 pts/game

Head coach

Olivier Pantalonisince 1 Jul 2026 · 7 games · 1.14 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

51%Market 50%

Draw (X)

24%Market 25%

Away win (2)

25%Market 25%

Over 2.5 goals

56%Market 57%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

1.8 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lyon 1 - 1 Nice (11.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.0%
2. 2 - 19.7%
3. 1 - 09.3%
4. 2 - 08.2%
5. 1 - 26.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Nice

Goals scored by Lyon

01234505.36.23.61.40.40.119.311.06.42.50.70.228.29.75.72.20.70.234.95.73.31.30.40.142.12.51.50.60.20.050.80.90.50.20.10.0

Next matches of Lyon

25/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis Saint-Germain

31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeAngers

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayBrest

Next matches of Nice

23/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayBrest

31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeStade Rennais

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayAngers

Our model gives Lyon win 51%, draw 24%, Nice win 25%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.77 - 1.17. largest gap to the market: Lyon win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.