Aberdeen vs St Mirren prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Aberdeen vs St Mirren, 2026-10-17, Scottish Premiership, kickoff 17:00 Athens time

stadiumSCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Aberdeen

VS14:00 GMT

St Mirren

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.72

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MODEL OVER 2.5

51%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AberdeenX2 St Mirren

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Aberdeen (1)	51.3%	54.1%	1.85	trending_up+2.8 pp
Draw (X)	25.8%	24.5%	4.09	trending_down-1.3 pp
St Mirren (2)	22.9%	21.4%	4.67	trending_down-1.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Aberdeen 1 - 1 St Mirren

PROBABILITY

11.5%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.8Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aberdeen

52%1.911.83

Draw

25%4.023.65

St Mirren

23%4.384.10

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aberdeen or draw

77%1.30—

St Mirren or draw

48%2.10—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

76%1.32—

Under 1.5 goals

24%4.13—

Over 2.5 goals

51%1.961.74

Under 2.5 goals

49%2.042.00

Over 3.5 goals

29%3.45—

Under 3.5 goals

71%1.41—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.89—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.12—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

80%1.26—

Under 7.5 corners

20%4.92—

Over 8.5 corners

71%1.42—

Under 8.5 corners

29%3.41—

Over 9.5 corners

61%1.65—

Under 9.5 corners

39%2.54—

Over 10.5 corners

50%1.99—

Under 10.5 corners

50%2.01—

Over 11.5 corners

40%2.48—

Under 11.5 corners

60%1.68—

Over 12.5 corners

31%3.19—

Under 12.5 corners

69%1.46—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.14—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.90—

Over 2.5 cards

71%1.41—

Under 2.5 cards

29%3.45—

Over 3.5 cards

51%1.97—

Under 3.5 cards

49%2.03—

Over 4.5 cards

32%3.12—

Under 4.5 cards

68%1.47—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.51—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.22—

Over 6.5 cards

10%10.48—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Aberdeen

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 10-4

WWDWL

LHSt Johnstone0-1

WADunfermline Athletic4-1

DAHibernian1-1

WAMotherwell4-0

WAKilmarnock1-1

St Mirren

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 2-11

WLLLL

LAHeart of Midlothian0-5

LHDundee United0-3

LARangers0-1

LHCeltic1-2

WAKilmarnock1-0

Head-to-head

2026-05-12

Aberdeen0 - 2St Mirren

2026-04-04

St Mirren2 - 0Aberdeen

2025-12-03

Aberdeen3 - 3St Mirren

2025-10-18

St Mirren0 - 1Aberdeen

2025-05-03

St Mirren1 - 0Aberdeen

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Team comparison

Aberdeen

VS

St Mirren

#199 ▼2Power Index 38.5

Power Ranking

#221 ▼2Power Index 34.3

€14m6th in the league

Squad value

€8.8m8th in the league

Stephen Robinsonsince 12 Mar 2026 · 23 games · 1.61 pts/game

Head coach

Craig McLeishsince 12 Mar 2026 · 17 games · 1.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

52%Market 52%

Draw (X)

25%Market 25%

Away win (2)

23%Market 22%

Over 2.5 goals

51%Market 54% -3

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.7 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Aberdeen 1 - 1 St Mirren (11.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.5%
2. 1 - 011.1%
3. 2 - 19.7%
4. 2 - 09.4%
5. 0 - 16.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by St Mirren

Goals scored by Aberdeen

01234506.66.83.51.20.30.1111.111.55.92.00.50.129.49.75.01.70.40.135.35.42.81.00.20.142.22.31.20.40.10.050.70.80.40.10.00.0

Next matches of Aberdeen

24/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayDundee United

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeFalkirk

7/11/2026 · SCO.1HomeHibernian

Next matches of St Mirren

24/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeDundee

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeHibernian

31/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayMotherwell

Our model gives Aberdeen win 52%, draw 25%, St Mirren win 23%. over 2.5 goals 51%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.69 - 1.03. largest gap to the market: St Mirren win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.