Elche vs Villarreal prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Villarreal vs Elche, 2026-10-17, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 17:15 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•14:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Villarreal

VS14:15 GMT

Elche

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.35

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

65%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

57%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

1 (Villarreal)

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.44

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 VillarrealX2 Elche

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Villarreal (1)	66.2%	66.2%	1.51	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Draw (X)	19.1%	19.1%	5.23	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Elche (2)	14.7%	14.7%	6.80	trending_flat+0.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

1 (Villarreal)

Our probability: 68%.

Odds: 1.44

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Villarreal 2 - 0 Elche

PROBABILITY

9.9%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.4Exp. cards 4.1

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Villarreal

68%1.471.44

Draw

18%5.475.00

Elche

14%7.316.50

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Villarreal or draw

86%1.16—

Elche or draw

32%3.13—

Either team wins (no draw)

82%1.22—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.181.14

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.674.60

Over 2.5 goals

65%1.541.48

Under 2.5 goals

35%2.862.55

Over 3.5 goals

43%2.322.17

Under 3.5 goals

57%1.761.70

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

57%1.76—

Not both score (NG)

43%2.32—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

68%1.48—

Under 7.5 corners

32%3.08—

Over 8.5 corners

57%1.771.40

Under 8.5 corners

43%2.302.60

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.191.75

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.841.95

Over 10.5 corners

35%2.832.25

Under 10.5 corners

65%1.551.58

Over 11.5 corners

27%3.772.95

Under 11.5 corners

74%1.361.33

Over 12.5 corners

19%5.22—

Under 12.5 corners

81%1.24—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%10.56—

Over 2.5 cards

77%1.291.28

Under 2.5 cards

23%4.403.20

Over 3.5 cards

59%1.701.70

Under 3.5 cards

41%2.442.02

Over 4.5 cards

40%2.50—

Under 4.5 cards

60%1.67—

Over 5.5 cards

24%4.09—

Under 5.5 cards

76%1.32—

Over 6.5 cards

14%7.33—

Under 6.5 cards

86%1.16—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER50%

add_circleVillarreal

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.89

BUILDER35%

add_circleVillarreal

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.45

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Villarreal

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 10-6

LWWLW

WHNapoli3-1

LAReal Madrid0-1

WHLevante3-1

WAMálaga3-1

LHReal Betis1-2

Elche

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 8-8

LDLWD

DHCelta Vigo0-0

WAEspanyol3-1

LHReal Madrid2-3

DAAthletic Club1-1

LHReal Sociedad2-3

Head-to-head

2026-03-08

Villarreal2 - 1Elche

2026-01-03

Elche1 - 3Villarreal

2023-02-04

Elche3 - 1Villarreal

2022-09-04

Villarreal4 - 0Elche

2022-01-16

Elche1 - 0Villarreal

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Villarreal

VS

Elche

#29 ▲4Power Index 68.6

Power Ranking

#85 ▲4Power Index 54.9

€368m4th in the league

Squad value

€74m18th in the league

Iñigo Pérezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 1.09 pts/game

Head coach

Martín Anselmisince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 0.78 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

68%Market 68%

Draw (X)

18%Market 18%

Away win (2)

14%Market 14%

Over 2.5 goals

65%Market 65%

Both teams to score

57%Market: —

Expected goals

2.4 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Villarreal 2 - 0 Elche (9.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 09.9%
2. 2 - 19.7%
3. 1 - 08.3%
4. 1 - 18.1%
5. 3 - 07.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Elche

Goals scored by Villarreal

01234503.53.41.70.50.10.018.38.14.01.30.30.129.99.74.71.50.40.137.87.63.71.20.30.144.64.52.20.70.20.052.22.11.10.30.10.0

Next matches of Villarreal

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

30/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeEspanyol

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeGetafe

Next matches of Elche

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayRayo Vallecano

1/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeValencia

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeReal Betis

Our model gives Villarreal win 68%, draw 18%, Elche win 14%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 57%. expected goals 2.37 - 0.98. largest gap to the market: Villarreal win (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.