Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II, 2026-10-17, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Sparta Rotterdam

VS19:00 GMT

Willem II

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.45

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

67%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Sparta RotterdamX2 Willem II

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Sparta Rotterdam (1)	58.1%	59.4%	1.68	trending_up+1.3 pp
Draw (X)	21.4%	21.4%	4.67	trending_flat-0.0 pp
Willem II (2)	20.5%	19.2%	5.20	trending_down-1.3 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Odds: 1.45

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 1 Willem II

PROBABILITY

9.6%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.8Exp. cards 2.8

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Rotterdam

59%1.711.64

Draw

21%4.854.35

Willem II

21%4.804.75

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

79%1.261.19

Willem II or draw

41%2.412.27

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.261.21

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.161.13

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.245.85

Over 2.5 goals

67%1.491.45

Under 2.5 goals

33%3.042.72

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.202.15

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.831.70

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

64%1.571.51

Not both score (NG)

36%2.772.45

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

79%1.261.14

Under 7.5 corners

21%4.795.50

Over 8.5 corners

70%1.431.30

Under 8.5 corners

30%3.333.40

Over 9.5 corners

60%1.671.51

Under 9.5 corners

40%2.492.50

Over 10.5 corners

50%2.021.82

Under 10.5 corners

50%1.981.95

Over 11.5 corners

40%2.522.27

Under 11.5 corners

60%1.661.60

Over 12.5 corners

31%3.262.95

Under 12.5 corners

69%1.441.38

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

76%1.31—

Under 1.5 cards

24%4.18—

Over 2.5 cards

53%1.89—

Under 2.5 cards

47%2.13—

Over 3.5 cards

31%3.19—

Under 3.5 cards

69%1.46—

Over 4.5 cards

16%6.15—

Under 4.5 cards

84%1.19—

Over 5.5 cards

8%12.81—

Under 5.5 cards

92%1.08—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER52%

add_circleSparta Rotterdam

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.80

BUILDER47%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleBoth score (GG)

Indicative odds: 1.83

BUILDER44%

add_circleSparta Rotterdam

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.11

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Sparta Rotterdam

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 7-15

LDLLD

DAGo Ahead Eagles3-3

LHHeerenveen0-4

LAPSV Eindhoven1-4

DHPEC Zwolle2-2

LAExcelsior1-2

Willem II

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · goals 3-13

LDLLL

LAFC Utrecht1-3

LHFortuna Sittard0-1

LAAjax Amsterdam1-5

DAAZ Alkmaar1-1

LHExcelsior0-3

Head-to-head

2025-12-18

Willem II1 - 5Sparta Rotterdam

2025-03-02

Sparta Rotterdam4 - 0Willem II

2024-08-31

Willem II1 - 2Sparta Rotterdam

2022-02-13

Sparta Rotterdam1 - 0Willem II

2021-11-06

Willem II0 - 3Sparta Rotterdam

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Sparta Rotterdam

VS

Willem II

#194 ▼5Power Index 39.0

Power Ranking

#240 ▼2Power Index 30.2

€32m10th in the league

Squad value

€24m13th in the league

Rogier Meijersince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.00 pts/game

Head coach

John Stegemansince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.56 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

59%Market 60%

Draw (X)

21%Market 21%

Away win (2)

21%Market 20%

Over 2.5 goals

67%Market 67%

Both teams to score

64%Market: —

Expected goals

2.2 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 1 Willem II (9.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.6%
2. 1 - 18.7%
3. 2 - 07.6%
4. 3 - 17.0%
5. 1 - 06.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Willem II

Goals scored by Sparta Rotterdam

01234503.24.02.51.00.30.116.98.75.52.30.70.227.69.66.02.50.80.235.67.04.41.80.60.143.13.92.41.00.30.151.41.71.10.40.10.0

Next matches of Sparta Rotterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAjax Amsterdam

1/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Groningen

7/11/2026 · NED.1AwayADO Den Haag

Next matches of Willem II

24/10/2026 · NED.1HomeSC Cambuur

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayPSV Eindhoven

6/11/2026 · NED.1HomePEC Zwolle

Our model gives Sparta Rotterdam win 59%, draw 21%, Willem II win 21%. over 2.5 goals 67%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 2.20 - 1.26. largest gap to the market: Willem II win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.