SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07, 2026-10-17, German Bundesliga, kickoff 16:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•13:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Werder Bremen

VS13:30 GMT

SC Paderborn 07

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.19

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

62%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Werder BremenX2 SC Paderborn 07

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Werder Bremen (1)	53%	54.2%	1.85	trending_up+1.2 pp
Draw (X)	23.4%	23.2%	4.31	trending_flat-0.2 pp
SC Paderborn 07 (2)	23.7%	22.6%	4.42	trending_down-1.0 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Werder Bremen 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07

PROBABILITY

9.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.3Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Werder Bremen

56%1.801.74

Draw

22%4.503.95

SC Paderborn 07

22%4.493.90

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Werder Bremen or draw

78%1.29—

SC Paderborn 07 or draw

44%2.25—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.29—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

83%1.201.16

Under 1.5 goals

17%5.895.00

Over 2.5 goals

62%1.621.53

Under 2.5 goals

38%2.622.50

Over 3.5 goals

40%2.532.30

Under 3.5 goals

61%1.651.61

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.65—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.53—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

75%1.321.32

Under 7.5 corners

25%4.083.25

Over 8.5 corners

66%1.521.57

Under 8.5 corners

34%2.912.35

Over 9.5 corners

55%1.821.94

Under 9.5 corners

45%2.221.84

Over 10.5 corners

45%2.242.47

Under 10.5 corners

55%1.811.52

Over 11.5 corners

35%2.863.30

Under 11.5 corners

65%1.541.31

Over 12.5 corners

26%3.784.50

Under 12.5 corners

74%1.361.18

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.14—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.91—

Over 2.5 cards

71%1.411.35

Under 2.5 cards

29%3.462.85

Over 3.5 cards

51%1.971.85

Under 3.5 cards

49%2.041.85

Over 4.5 cards

32%3.11—

Under 4.5 cards

68%1.47—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.50—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.22—

Over 6.5 cards

10%10.45—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%

add_circleWerder Bremen

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.96

BUILDER39%

add_circleWerder Bremen

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.32

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Werder Bremen

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 10-10

LWDWD

DABorussia Dortmund2-2

WHFC Augsburg3-2

DAFC Cologne1-1

WHRB Leipzig3-1

LASC Freiburg1-4

SC Paderborn 07

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 4-7

LLWWL

LHVfB Stuttgart0-2

WAD.C. United1-0

WHTSG Hoffenheim3-1

LABorussia Dortmund0-3

LHSC Freiburg0-1

Head-to-head

2026-08-08

Werder Bremen2 - 2SC Paderborn 07

2024-10-30

SC Paderborn 070 - 1Werder Bremen

2022-10-19

SC Paderborn 072 - 2Werder Bremen

2022-01-22

SC Paderborn 073 - 4Werder Bremen

2021-08-15

Werder Bremen1 - 4SC Paderborn 07

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Team comparison

Werder Bremen

VS

SC Paderborn 07

#100 ▲1Power Index 52.3

Power Ranking

#140 ▲4Power Index 47.2

€124m14th in the league

Squad value

€54m18th in the league

Daniel Thiounesince 4 Feb 2026 · 21 games · 1.19 pts/game

Head coach

Ralf Kettemannsince 1 Jul 2025 · 44 games · 1.68 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

56%Market 55%

Draw (X)

22%Market 22%

Away win (2)

22%Market 23%

Over 2.5 goals

62%Market 63%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

2.0 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Werder Bremen 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07 (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 19.8%
2. 2 - 19.8%
3. 1 - 08.2%
4. 2 - 08.2%
5. 3 - 16.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by SC Paderborn 07

Goals scored by Werder Bremen

01234504.14.93.01.20.40.118.29.85.92.30.70.228.29.85.92.30.70.235.46.53.91.60.50.142.73.21.90.80.20.151.11.30.80.30.10.0

Next matches of Werder Bremen

24/10/2026 · GER.1AwayMainz

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeTSG Hoffenheim

7/11/2026 · GER.1AwayVfB Stuttgart

Next matches of SC Paderborn 07

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeHamburg SV

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayBorussia Mönchengladbach

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeEintracht Frankfurt

Our model gives Werder Bremen win 56%, draw 22%, SC Paderborn 07 win 22%. over 2.5 goals 62%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.99 - 1.20. largest gap to the market: Werder Bremen win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.