Aston Villa vs Newcastle United prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa, 2026-10-17, English Premier League, kickoff 19:30 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Newcastle United

VS16:30 GMT

Aston Villa

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.07

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MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

62%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

1X (Newcastle United or draw)

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Newcastle UnitedX2 Aston Villa

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Newcastle United (1)	41.6%	44.3%	2.26	trending_up+2.7 pp
Draw (X)	25.9%	25.4%	3.93	trending_down-0.5 pp
Aston Villa (2)	32.5%	30.3%	3.30	trending_down-2.2 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

1X (Newcastle United or draw)

Our probability: 68%.

Indicative odds: 1.40

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Newcastle United 1 - 1 Aston Villa

PROBABILITY

10.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.9Exp. cards 4.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Newcastle United

43%2.342.30

Draw

24%4.093.70

Aston Villa

33%3.052.95

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Newcastle United or draw

67%1.49—

Aston Villa or draw

57%1.74—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.231.15

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.384.40

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.691.62

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.452.30

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.722.40

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.581.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

62%1.62—

Not both score (NG)

38%2.60—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.39—

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.57—

Over 8.5 corners

62%1.621.33

Under 8.5 corners

38%2.602.95

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.971.60

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.032.20

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.482.02

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.681.70

Over 11.5 corners

31%3.232.60

Under 11.5 corners

69%1.451.40

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.35—

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.30—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%11.32—

Over 2.5 cards

79%1.27—

Under 2.5 cards

21%4.67—

Over 3.5 cards

61%1.641.65

Under 3.5 cards

39%2.552.10

Over 4.5 cards

42%2.382.45

Under 4.5 cards

58%1.721.45

Over 5.5 cards

26%3.84—

Under 5.5 cards

74%1.35—

Over 6.5 cards

15%6.76—

Under 6.5 cards

85%1.17—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER35%

add_circleNewcastle United

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.60

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Newcastle United

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-11

DWLWL

LACoventry City1-4

WHHull City2-1

LALeeds United1-4

WAMillwall1-0

DHAFC Bournemouth2-2

Aston Villa

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 17-6

WWWDW

WHFenerbahce6-0

DHBrentford2-2

WASevilla3-1

WATottenham Hotspur3-2

WACoventry City3-1

Head-to-head

2026-02-14

Aston Villa1 - 3Newcastle United

2026-01-25

Newcastle United0 - 2Aston Villa

2025-08-16

Aston Villa0 - 0Newcastle United

2025-04-19

Aston Villa4 - 1Newcastle United

2024-12-26

Newcastle United3 - 0Aston Villa

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Team comparison

Newcastle United

VS

Aston Villa

#15 ▼1Power Index 76.7

Power Ranking

#14 ▲2Power Index 77.4

€606m7th in the league

Squad value

€573m12th in the league

Matthias Jaisslesince 5 Aug 2026 · 9 games · 1.56 pts/game

Head coach

Unai Emerysince 1 Nov 2022 · 207 games · 1.83 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

43%Market 42%

Draw (X)

24%Market 26%

Away win (2)

33%Market 32%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

62%Market: —

Expected goals

1.6 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Aston Villa (10.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.9%
2. 2 - 19.0%
3. 1 - 27.7%
4. 1 - 07.7%
5. 0 - 16.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Aston Villa

Goals scored by Newcastle United

01234504.66.64.72.20.80.217.710.97.73.71.30.426.39.06.43.01.10.333.54.93.51.70.60.241.42.01.40.70.20.150.50.70.50.20.10.0

Next matches of Newcastle United

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayCrystal Palace

2/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeEverton

7/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayFulham

Next matches of Aston Villa

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester City

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeFulham

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United

Our model gives Newcastle United win 43%, draw 24%, Aston Villa win 33%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 62%. expected goals 1.65 - 1.42. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.