Chelsea vs Everton prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Everton vs Chelsea, 2026-10-17, English Premier League, kickoff 14:30 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•11:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Everton

VS11:30 GMT

Chelsea

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.04

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 11.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 EvertonX2 Chelsea

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Everton (1)	30.7%	32.9%	3.04	trending_up+2.2 pp
Draw (X)	26.1%	26.5%	3.77	trending_up+0.4 pp
Chelsea (2)	43.2%	40.6%	2.46	trending_down-2.6 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

Under 11.5 corners

Expected corners: Everton 4.5, Chelsea 5.4, total 9.9 (line 11.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Everton x0.88, Chelsea x1.12 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.40

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Everton 1 - 1 Chelsea

PROBABILITY

11.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.9Exp. cards 4.1

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Everton

32%3.123.10

Draw

25%4.073.65

Chelsea

43%2.302.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Everton or draw

57%1.77—

Chelsea or draw

68%1.47—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.231.16

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.274.30

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.711.65

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.422.25

Over 3.5 goals

36%2.762.45

Under 3.5 goals

64%1.571.52

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.64—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.57—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.39—

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.58—

Over 8.5 corners

62%1.621.35

Under 8.5 corners

38%2.602.90

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.971.58

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.032.25

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.482.05

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.681.68

Over 11.5 corners

31%3.232.65

Under 11.5 corners

69%1.451.40

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.35—

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.30—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

90%1.11—

Under 1.5 cards

10%10.06—

Over 2.5 cards

76%1.311.28

Under 2.5 cards

24%4.223.20

Over 3.5 cards

58%1.731.70

Under 3.5 cards

42%2.362.02

Over 4.5 cards

39%2.58—

Under 4.5 cards

61%1.63—

Over 5.5 cards

23%4.29—

Under 5.5 cards

77%1.30—

Over 6.5 cards

13%7.76—

Under 6.5 cards

87%1.15—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER36%

add_circleChelsea

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.50

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Everton

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · goals 6-4

DDWWD

DAHull City2-2

WHIpswich Town1-0

WHWolverhampton Wanderers1-0

DATottenham Hotspur0-0

DHManchester United2-2

Chelsea

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 14-11

LWDLW

WHAFC Bournemouth5-1

LABrentford0-3

DHHull City2-2

WHLeeds United6-3

LAArsenal1-2

Head-to-head

2026-03-21

Everton3 - 0Chelsea

2025-12-13

Chelsea2 - 0Everton

2025-04-26

Chelsea1 - 0Everton

2024-12-22

Everton0 - 0Chelsea

2024-04-15

Chelsea6 - 0Everton

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Team comparison

Everton

VS

Chelsea

#36 ▼5Power Index 68.1

Power Ranking

#10 ▲1Power Index 79.1

€394m17th in the league

Squad value

€1.08bn3rd in the league

David Moyessince 11 Jan 2025 · 70 games · 1.41 pts/game

Head coach

Xabi Alonsosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.11 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

32%Market 31%

Draw (X)

25%Market 26%

Away win (2)

43%Market 44%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 58%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

1.4 - 1.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Everton 1 - 1 Chelsea (11.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.0%
2. 1 - 29.1%
3. 0 - 17.9%
4. 2 - 17.6%
5. 1 - 06.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Chelsea

Goals scored by Everton

01234504.87.96.53.61.50.516.611.09.15.02.10.724.67.66.33.51.40.532.13.52.91.60.70.240.71.21.00.60.20.150.20.30.30.20.10.0

Next matches of Everton

24/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayArsenal

2/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayNewcastle United

6/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeCoventry City

Next matches of Chelsea

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeTottenham Hotspur

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester United

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwaySunderland

Our model gives Everton win 32%, draw 25%, Chelsea win 43%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.39 - 1.65. largest gap to the market: Everton win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.