Napoli vs Venezia prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Venezia vs Napoli, 2026-10-17, Italian Serie A, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•13:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Venezia

VS13:00 GMT

Napoli

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.93

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 VeneziaX2 Napoli

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Venezia (1)	20.6%	21%	4.76	trending_up+0.4 pp
Draw (X)	24.7%	24.3%	4.11	trending_flat-0.4 pp
Napoli (2)	54.8%	54.7%	1.83	trending_flat-0.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Venezia 1 - 1 Napoli

PROBABILITY

10.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.1Exp. cards 3.4

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Venezia

20%5.054.50

Draw

23%4.393.75

Napoli

57%1.741.69

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Venezia or draw

43%2.35—

Napoli or draw

80%1.25—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.30—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.261.20

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.844.10

Over 2.5 goals

56%1.781.75

Under 2.5 goals

44%2.282.08

Over 3.5 goals

34%2.972.65

Under 3.5 goals

66%1.511.42

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

55%1.82—

Not both score (NG)

45%2.22—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

65%1.551.37

Under 7.5 corners

35%2.822.75

Over 8.5 corners

53%1.881.75

Under 8.5 corners

47%2.141.95

Over 9.5 corners

42%2.362.25

Under 9.5 corners

58%1.731.55

Over 10.5 corners

32%3.093.05

Under 10.5 corners

68%1.481.30

Over 11.5 corners

24%4.20—

Under 11.5 corners

76%1.31—

Over 12.5 corners

17%5.90—

Under 12.5 corners

83%1.20—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 1.5 cards

16%6.16—

Over 2.5 cards

65%1.541.40

Under 2.5 cards

35%2.842.60

Over 3.5 cards

43%2.302.00

Under 3.5 cards

57%1.771.73

Over 4.5 cards

26%3.92—

Under 4.5 cards

74%1.34—

Over 5.5 cards

14%7.39—

Under 5.5 cards

86%1.16—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%

add_circleNapoli

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.94

BUILDER38%

add_circleNapoli

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.51

BUILDER36%

add_circleNapoli

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.40

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Venezia

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · goals 6-14

LLLLL

LAAtalanta1-3

LHLazio0-2

LHFiorentina2-4

LAFrosinone2-3

LAUdinese1-2

Napoli

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 6-5

LWDWL

LAVillarreal1-3

WHFrosinone3-0

DAFiorentina1-1

WHBologna1-0

LHArsenal0-1

Head-to-head

2025-03-16

Venezia0 - 0Napoli

2024-12-29

Napoli1 - 0Venezia

2022-02-06

Venezia0 - 2Napoli

2021-08-22

Napoli2 - 0Venezia

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Team comparison

Venezia

VS

Napoli

#148 ▲8Power Index 46.0

Power Ranking

#43 ▼3Power Index 65.6

€120m17th in the league

Squad value

€425m7th in the league

Davide Nicola NEWsince 14 Oct 2026 · 1 games · 3.00 pts/game

Head coach

Massimiliano Allegrisince 3 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.11 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

20%Market 20%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

57%Market 57%

Over 2.5 goals

56%Market 54%

Both teams to score

55%Market: —

Expected goals

1.0 - 1.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Venezia 1 - 1 Napoli (10.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.4%
2. 0 - 110.2%
3. 1 - 29.9%
4. 0 - 29.6%
5. 1 - 36.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Napoli

Goals scored by Venezia

01234505.310.29.66.12.91.115.510.49.96.33.01.122.85.45.13.21.50.631.01.81.81.10.50.240.20.50.50.30.10.150.10.10.10.10.00.0

Next matches of Venezia

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayGenoa

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeInternazionale

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayComo

Next matches of Napoli

24/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeAS Roma

28/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayMonza

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayJuventus

Our model gives Venezia win 20%, draw 23%, Napoli win 57%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 55%. expected goals 1.03 - 1.90. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.