1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund, 2026-10-17, German Bundesliga, kickoff 16:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•13:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

1. FC Union Berlin

VS13:30 GMT

Borussia Dortmund

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.20

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

62%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 1. FC Union BerlinX2 Borussia Dortmund

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
1. FC Union Berlin (1)	19.3%	18.5%	5.41	trending_down-0.8 pp
Draw (X)	21.6%	21.5%	4.65	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Borussia Dortmund (2)	59.1%	60%	1.67	trending_up+0.9 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

1. FC Union Berlin 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund

PROBABILITY

9.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.5Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

1. FC Union Berlin

19%5.364.80

Draw

21%4.764.30

Borussia Dortmund

60%1.661.57

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

1. FC Union Berlin or draw

40%2.52—

Borussia Dortmund or draw

81%1.23—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.27—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

83%1.201.14

Under 1.5 goals

17%5.964.70

Over 2.5 goals

62%1.611.50

Under 2.5 goals

38%2.642.45

Over 3.5 goals

40%2.512.25

Under 3.5 goals

60%1.661.65

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.70—

Not both score (NG)

41%2.43—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

68%1.471.31

Under 7.5 corners

32%3.133.35

Over 8.5 corners

57%1.751.54

Under 8.5 corners

43%2.332.45

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.171.88

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.861.88

Over 10.5 corners

36%2.782.40

Under 10.5 corners

64%1.561.55

Over 11.5 corners

27%3.713.20

Under 11.5 corners

73%1.371.34

Over 12.5 corners

20%5.114.35

Under 12.5 corners

80%1.241.20

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.57—

Over 2.5 cards

70%1.431.37

Under 2.5 cards

30%3.332.75

Over 3.5 cards

50%2.021.90

Under 3.5 cards

50%1.981.80

Over 4.5 cards

31%3.23—

Under 4.5 cards

69%1.45—

Over 5.5 cards

17%5.78—

Under 5.5 cards

83%1.21—

Over 6.5 cards

9%11.08—

Under 6.5 cards

91%1.10—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER43%

add_circleBorussia Dortmund

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.05

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

1. FC Union Berlin

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 3-14

LLLWW

WHSV Elversberg1-0

WARijeka1-0

LABayern Munich0-7

LHSchalke 041-3

LABayer Leverkusen0-4

Borussia Dortmund

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 9-5

WWWDL

LABodo/Glimt0-1

DHWerder Bremen2-2

WAVfB Stuttgart1-0

WHSC Paderborn 073-0

WHVillarreal3-2

Head-to-head

2026-01-24

1. FC Union Berlin0 - 3Borussia Dortmund

2025-08-31

Borussia Dortmund3 - 01. FC Union Berlin

2025-02-22

Borussia Dortmund6 - 01. FC Union Berlin

2024-10-05

1. FC Union Berlin2 - 1Borussia Dortmund

2024-03-02

1. FC Union Berlin0 - 2Borussia Dortmund

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Team comparison

1. FC Union Berlin

VS

Borussia Dortmund

#122 ▲1Power Index 49.3

Power Ranking

#19 ▼1Power Index 74.4

€111m15th in the league

Squad value

€588m2nd in the league

Mauro Lustrinellisince 1 Jul 2026 · 7 games · 1.14 pts/game

Head coach

Niko Kovacsince 2 Feb 2025 · 82 games · 1.98 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

19%Market 18%

Draw (X)

21%Market 21%

Away win (2)

60%Market 61%

Over 2.5 goals

62%Market 63%

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 2.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: 1. FC Union Berlin 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund (9.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 29.9%
2. 1 - 19.4%
3. 0 - 29.0%
4. 0 - 18.6%
5. 1 - 37.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Borussia Dortmund

Goals scored by 1. FC Union Berlin

01234504.18.69.06.33.31.414.49.49.97.03.71.522.45.15.43.82.00.830.91.92.01.40.70.340.20.50.50.40.20.150.10.10.10.10.00.0

Next matches of 1. FC Union Berlin

24/10/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Augsburg

1/11/2026 · GER.1HomeFC Cologne

8/11/2026 · GER.1AwaySC Freiburg

Next matches of Borussia Dortmund

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeEintracht Frankfurt

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayBayern Munich

4/11/2026 · UEFA.CHAMPIONSHomeReal Betis

Our model gives 1. FC Union Berlin win 19%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund win 60%. over 2.5 goals 62%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 1.10 - 2.11. largest gap to the market: Borussia Dortmund win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.