Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction, tips and odds

Next scheduled meeting: Motherwell vs Kilmarnock, 5/12/2026, sco.1. Analysis and tips appear 1-2 days before kickoff.

stadiumSCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Kilmarnock

VS14:00 GMT

Motherwell

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.06

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 KilmarnockX2 Motherwell

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Kilmarnock (1)	30.5%	33.3%	3.00	trending_up+2.8 pp
Draw (X)	25.6%	26.4%	3.80	trending_up+0.8 pp
Motherwell (2)	44%	40.4%	2.48	trending_down-3.6 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Kilmarnock 1 - 1 Motherwell

PROBABILITY

10.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 4.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Kilmarnock

30%3.333.10

Draw

24%4.123.70

Motherwell

46%2.192.15

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Kilmarnock or draw

54%1.84—

Motherwell or draw

70%1.43—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.23—

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.35—

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.691.59

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.442.25

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.73—

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.58—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.64—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.57—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

66%1.51—

Under 7.5 corners

34%2.97—

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.81—

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.23—

Over 9.5 corners

44%2.26—

Under 9.5 corners

56%1.79—

Over 10.5 corners

34%2.93—

Under 10.5 corners

66%1.52—

Over 11.5 corners

25%3.94—

Under 11.5 corners

75%1.34—

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.49—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.22—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%10.69—

Over 2.5 cards

78%1.29—

Under 2.5 cards

23%4.44—

Over 3.5 cards

59%1.69—

Under 3.5 cards

41%2.46—

Over 4.5 cards

40%2.47—

Under 4.5 cards

60%1.68—

Over 5.5 cards

25%4.05—

Under 5.5 cards

75%1.33—

Over 6.5 cards

14%7.22—

Under 6.5 cards

86%1.16—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Kilmarnock

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 4-5

DLWDL

LARangers1-3

DHHeart of Midlothian1-1

WAHibernian1-0

LHAberdeen1-1

DAAberdeen0-0

Motherwell

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 4-9

WLLLL

LHCeltic0-2

LADundee1-2

LHAberdeen0-4

LARangers0-1

WHDundee United3-0

Head-to-head

2026-01-24

Motherwell4 - 0Kilmarnock

2025-11-22

Kilmarnock1 - 3Motherwell

2025-08-30

Motherwell2 - 2Kilmarnock

2025-05-14

Motherwell3 - 0Kilmarnock

2025-04-05

Kilmarnock2 - 0Motherwell

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Team comparison

Kilmarnock

VS

Motherwell

#233 ▼1Power Index 32.2

Power Ranking

#171 ▼3Power Index 42.5

€6.7m11th in the league

Squad value

€16m5th in the league

Neil McCannsince 6 Jan 2026 · 33 games · 1.42 pts/game

Head coach

Alfred Johanssonsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 1.13 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

30%Market 30%

Draw (X)

24%Market 25%

Away win (2)

46%Market 45%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 1.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Kilmarnock 1 - 1 Motherwell (10.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.8%
2. 1 - 29.3%
3. 0 - 18.0%
4. 2 - 17.3%
5. 0 - 26.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Motherwell

Goals scored by Kilmarnock

01234504.78.06.93.91.70.616.310.89.35.32.30.824.37.36.23.61.50.531.93.32.81.60.70.240.61.10.90.50.20.150.20.30.30.10.10.0

Next matches of Kilmarnock

24/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayFalkirk

28/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayDundee

31/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeSt Johnstone

Next matches of Motherwell

25/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeHeart of Midlothian

28/10/2026 · SCO.1AwaySt Johnstone

31/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeSt Mirren

Our model gives Kilmarnock win 30%, draw 24%, Motherwell win 46%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.35 - 1.71. largest gap to the market: Motherwell win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.