Mainz vs Schalke 04 prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Schalke 04 vs Mainz, 2026-10-17, German Bundesliga, kickoff 16:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•13:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Schalke 04

VS13:30 GMT

Mainz

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.04

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

X2 (Mainz or draw)

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Schalke 04X2 Mainz

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Schalke 04 (1)	31.7%	32.9%	3.04	trending_up+1.2 pp
Draw (X)	26.6%	27.1%	3.69	trending_up+0.5 pp
Mainz (2)	41.7%	40%	2.50	trending_down-1.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

X2 (Mainz or draw)

Our probability: 67%.

Indicative odds: 1.42

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Schalke 04 1 - 1 Mainz

PROBABILITY

11.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 4.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Schalke 04

33%3.072.90

Draw

25%4.073.45

Mainz

43%2.332.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Schalke 04 or draw

57%1.75—

Mainz or draw

67%1.48—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.231.15

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.264.40

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.711.63

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.412.30

Over 3.5 goals

36%2.762.40

Under 3.5 goals

64%1.571.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.64—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.57—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

73%1.38—

Under 7.5 corners

27%3.67—

Over 8.5 corners

62%1.601.50

Under 8.5 corners

38%2.662.35

Over 9.5 corners

52%1.941.90

Under 9.5 corners

48%2.071.80

Over 10.5 corners

41%2.432.45

Under 10.5 corners

59%1.701.47

Over 11.5 corners

32%3.15—

Under 11.5 corners

68%1.46—

Over 12.5 corners

24%4.23—

Under 12.5 corners

76%1.31—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%10.91—

Over 2.5 cards

78%1.28—

Under 2.5 cards

22%4.52—

Over 3.5 cards

60%1.671.60

Under 3.5 cards

40%2.492.20

Over 4.5 cards

41%2.442.35

Under 4.5 cards

59%1.691.50

Over 5.5 cards

25%3.97—

Under 5.5 cards

75%1.34—

Over 6.5 cards

14%7.06—

Under 6.5 cards

86%1.17—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER35%

add_circleMainz

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.48

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Schalke 04

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 10-5

WDWWL

LASC Freiburg1-2

WAAustria Lustenau1-0

WARW Oberhausen5-2

DHSV Elversberg0-0

WA1. FC Union Berlin3-1

Mainz

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 16-10

WLWWL

LHBayer Leverkusen3-4

WASV Waldhof Mannheim3-0

WABorussia Mönchengladbach4-3

LHEintracht Frankfurt1-3

WAHamburg SV5-0

Head-to-head

2023-05-05

Mainz2 - 3Schalke 04

2022-11-09

Schalke 041 - 0Mainz

2021-03-05

Schalke 040 - 0Mainz

2020-11-07

Mainz2 - 2Schalke 04

2020-02-16

Mainz0 - 0Schalke 04

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Team comparison

Schalke 04

VS

Mainz

#162 ▲1Power Index 43.9

Power Ranking

#69 ▲1Power Index 58.5

€75m16th in the league

Squad value

€160m10th in the league

Miron Muslicsince 31 May 2025 · 43 games · 1.88 pts/game

Head coach

Urs Fischersince 7 Dec 2025 · 34 games · 1.71 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

33%Market 31%

Draw (X)

25%Market 26%

Away win (2)

43%Market 42%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

1.4 - 1.6

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Schalke 04 1 - 1 Mainz (11.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.0%
2. 1 - 29.0%
3. 0 - 17.8%
4. 2 - 17.7%
5. 1 - 06.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Mainz

Goals scored by Schalke 04

01234504.87.86.43.51.40.516.711.09.04.92.00.724.77.76.33.41.40.532.23.62.91.60.70.240.81.31.00.60.20.150.20.40.30.20.10.0

Next matches of Schalke 04

24/10/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Cologne

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeRB Leipzig

8/11/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim

Next matches of Mainz

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeWerder Bremen

30/10/2026 · GER.1AwaySV Elversberg

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeBayern Munich

Our model gives Schalke 04 win 33%, draw 25%, Mainz win 43%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.40 - 1.64. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.