AS Roma vs Genoa prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AS Roma vs Genoa, 2026-10-17, Italian Serie A, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

AS Roma

VS18:45 GMT

Genoa

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.73

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

51%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 10.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

70%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AS RomaX2 Genoa

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AS Roma (1)	60.1%	59.9%	1.67	trending_flat-0.2 pp
Draw (X)	23.8%	24%	4.17	trending_flat+0.2 pp
Genoa (2)	16.1%	16.1%	6.23	trending_flat-0.1 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK70%

Under 10.5 corners

Expected corners: AS Roma 6.0, Genoa 2.9, total 8.9 (line 10.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: AS Roma x1.01, Genoa x0.83 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.45

1X2 / Double chance68%

1 (AS Roma)

Our probability: 68%.

Odds: 1.41

Goals O/U & BTTS67%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Odds: 1.45

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AS Roma 1 - 0 Genoa

PROBABILITY

12.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.9Exp. cards 3.8

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Roma

63%1.591.54

Draw

22%4.533.90

Genoa

15%6.625.75

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Roma or draw

85%1.18—

Genoa or draw

37%2.69—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

76%1.311.22

Under 1.5 goals

24%4.183.80

Over 2.5 goals

51%1.941.85

Under 2.5 goals

49%2.061.97

Over 3.5 goals

29%3.412.80

Under 3.5 goals

71%1.421.38

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

48%2.08—

Not both score (NG)

52%1.92—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

62%1.601.27

Under 7.5 corners

38%2.663.25

Over 8.5 corners

51%1.961.52

Under 8.5 corners

49%2.042.30

Over 9.5 corners

40%2.501.95

Under 9.5 corners

60%1.671.75

Over 10.5 corners

30%3.312.50

Under 10.5 corners

70%1.431.45

Over 11.5 corners

22%4.54—

Under 11.5 corners

78%1.28—

Over 12.5 corners

16%6.45—

Under 12.5 corners

85%1.18—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

88%1.13—

Under 1.5 cards

12%8.60—

Over 2.5 cards

73%1.371.27

Under 2.5 cards

27%3.703.25

Over 3.5 cards

53%1.881.70

Under 3.5 cards

47%2.142.02

Over 4.5 cards

34%2.91—

Under 4.5 cards

66%1.52—

Over 5.5 cards

20%5.02—

Under 5.5 cards

80%1.25—

Over 6.5 cards

11%9.39—

Under 6.5 cards

89%1.12—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%

add_circleAS Roma

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.13

BUILDER39%

add_circleAS Roma

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.38

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AS Roma

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · goals 8-7

DWDDL

LHReal Madrid3-4

DAComo0-0

DHInternazionale2-2

WATorino2-0

DAFenerbahce1-1

Genoa

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 5-6

DWLLW

WHFiorentina2-1

LARapid Bucuresti0-2

LAParma1-2

WHSudtirol1-0

DHFrosinone1-1

Head-to-head

2026-03-08

Genoa2 - 1AS Roma

2025-12-29

AS Roma3 - 1Genoa

2025-01-17

AS Roma3 - 1Genoa

2024-09-15

Genoa1 - 1AS Roma

2024-05-19

AS Roma1 - 0Genoa

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Team comparison

AS Roma

VS

Genoa

#24 ▲2Power Index 70.0

Power Ranking

#131Power Index 48.2

€498m5th in the league

Squad value

€166m13th in the league

Gian Piero Gasperinisince 6 Jun 2025 · 58 games · 1.86 pts/game

Head coach

Daniele De Rossisince 6 Nov 2025 · 38 games · 1.18 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

63%Market 62%

Draw (X)

22%Market 23%

Away win (2)

15%Market 15%

Over 2.5 goals

51%Market 52%

Both teams to score

48%Market: —

Expected goals

1.9 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AS Roma 1 - 0 Genoa (12.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 012.4%
2. 2 - 011.9%
3. 1 - 110.2%
4. 2 - 19.8%
5. 3 - 07.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Genoa

Goals scored by AS Roma

01234506.55.32.20.60.10.0112.410.24.21.10.20.0211.99.84.01.10.20.037.66.22.60.70.10.043.63.01.20.30.10.051.41.10.50.10.00.0

Next matches of AS Roma

24/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayNapoli

27/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeCagliari

31/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayUdinese

Next matches of Genoa

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeVenezia

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeJuventus

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayLecce

Our model gives AS Roma win 63%, draw 22%, Genoa win 15%. over 2.5 goals 51%. both teams to score 48%. expected goals 1.91 - 0.82. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.