Toulouse vs Troyes prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Toulouse vs Troyes, 2026-10-25, French Ligue 1, kickoff 18:15 Athens time

stadiumFRENCH LIGUE 1•16:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Toulouse

VS16:15 GMT

Troyes

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.09

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MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

57%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Toulouse 2 - 1 Troyes

PROBABILITY

9.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.6Exp. cards 3.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Toulouse

60%1.661.62

Draw

21%4.674.30

Troyes

18%5.495.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Toulouse or draw

82%1.22—

Troyes or draw

40%2.52—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.27—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.231.15

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.444.50

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.681.62

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.472.30

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.692.40

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.591.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

57%1.77—

Not both score (NG)

43%2.30—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

69%1.44—

Under 7.5 corners

31%3.25—

Over 8.5 corners

58%1.711.53

Under 8.5 corners

42%2.402.30

Over 9.5 corners

47%2.111.95

Under 9.5 corners

53%1.901.75

Over 10.5 corners

37%2.692.55

Under 10.5 corners

63%1.591.43

Over 11.5 corners

28%3.56—

Under 11.5 corners

72%1.39—

Over 12.5 corners

21%4.87—

Under 12.5 corners

79%1.26—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 cards

18%5.59—

Over 2.5 cards

62%1.611.35

Under 2.5 cards

38%2.632.85

Over 3.5 cards

40%2.471.85

Under 3.5 cards

60%1.681.85

Over 4.5 cards

23%4.33—

Under 4.5 cards

77%1.30—

Over 5.5 cards

12%8.40—

Under 5.5 cards

88%1.14—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER42%

add_circleToulouse

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.27

BUILDER35%

add_circleToulouse

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.52

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Toulouse

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 12-9

DWLDW

WALe Mans3-0

DAAS Monaco2-2

LHPau2-3

WHLe Havre AC3-2

DALorient2-2

Troyes

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · goals 3-11

LLDLL

LHLens1-3

LHMarseille0-2

DADijon FCO2-2

LAAngers0-2

LALille0-2

Head-to-head

2023-02-01

Toulouse4 - 1Troyes

2022-08-14

Troyes0 - 3Toulouse

2021-02-06

Troyes1 - 1Toulouse

2020-10-03

Toulouse0 - 0Troyes

2018-01-27

Toulouse1 - 0Troyes

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Team comparison

Toulouse

VS

Troyes

#80Power Index 56.7

Power Ranking

#182 ▼7Power Index 40.9

€124m11th in the league

Squad value

€43m17th in the league

Jens Berthel Askousince 1 Jul 2026 · 7 games · 1.29 pts/game

Head coach

Stéphane Dumontsince 12 Aug 2024 · 85 games · 1.64 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

60%Market 60%

Draw (X)

21%Market 22%

Away win (2)

18%Market 18%

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market 60%

Both teams to score

57%Market: —

Expected goals

2.0 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Toulouse 2 - 1 Troyes (9.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.9%
2. 1 - 19.7%
3. 2 - 09.6%
4. 1 - 09.4%
5. 3 - 16.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Troyes

Goals scored by Toulouse

01234504.64.72.50.90.20.019.49.75.01.70.50.129.69.95.21.80.50.136.56.83.51.20.30.143.33.51.80.60.20.051.41.40.70.30.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Toulouse

Last 5, most recent first

WDWDL

Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-3-0

Troyes

Last 5, most recent first

LLLLL

Goals per game, for / against0.6 / 3.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)0-1-3

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2

Form and team news

Toulouse

2 W2 D1 L2.0 for1.4 against

Toulouse have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 per game.

Troyes

0 W0 D5 L0.6 for3.0 against

Troyes have 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 3.0 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Toulouse

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeTroyes

1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayMarseille

6/11/2026 · FRA.1HomeStrasbourg

Next matches of Troyes

25/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayToulouse

31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLe Mans

7/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis Saint-Germain

Our model gives Toulouse win 60%, draw 21%, Troyes win 18%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 57%. expected goals 2.05 - 1.04. largest gap to the market: Toulouse win (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.