Leeds United vs Sunderland prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Sunderland vs Leeds United, 2026-10-25, English Premier League, kickoff 18:30 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Sunderland

VS16:30 GMT

Leeds United

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.47

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MODEL OVER 2.5

45%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

50%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Sunderland 1 - 1 Leeds United

PROBABILITY

12.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 3.9

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sunderland

31%3.183.10

Draw

28%3.603.25

Leeds United

41%2.452.40

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sunderland or draw

59%1.69—

Leeds United or draw

69%1.46—

Either team wins (no draw)

72%1.38—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

71%1.411.30

Under 1.5 goals

29%3.463.20

Over 2.5 goals

45%2.222.10

Under 2.5 goals

55%1.821.75

Over 3.5 goals

24%4.223.35

Under 3.5 goals

76%1.311.28

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

50%1.98—

Not both score (NG)

50%2.02—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

66%1.51—

Under 7.5 corners

34%2.97—

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.811.50

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.232.30

Over 9.5 corners

44%2.261.92

Under 9.5 corners

56%1.791.78

Over 10.5 corners

34%2.932.50

Under 10.5 corners

66%1.521.45

Over 11.5 corners

25%3.94—

Under 11.5 corners

75%1.34—

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.49—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.22—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.13—

Under 1.5 cards

11%8.81—

Over 2.5 cards

73%1.36—

Under 2.5 cards

27%3.77—

Over 3.5 cards

54%1.851.48

Under 3.5 cards

46%2.172.40

Over 4.5 cards

35%2.852.13

Under 4.5 cards

65%1.541.63

Over 5.5 cards

20%4.90—

Under 5.5 cards

80%1.26—

Over 6.5 cards

11%9.12—

Under 6.5 cards

89%1.12—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Sunderland

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-10

WLLWL

LAAFC Bournemouth0-2

WATorreense2-1

LHBrighton & Hove Albion0-2

LAManchester City3-5

WHAZ Alkmaar1-0

Leeds United

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-10

LWDLD

DHManchester United1-1

LAArsenal1-2

DHCrystal Palace0-0

WHNewcastle United4-1

LAChelsea3-6

Head-to-head

2026-07-30

Sunderland0 - 1Leeds United

2026-03-03

Leeds United0 - 1Sunderland

2025-12-28

Sunderland1 - 1Leeds United

2025-02-17

Leeds United2 - 1Sunderland

2024-10-04

Sunderland2 - 2Leeds United

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Team comparison

Sunderland

VS

Leeds United

#76 ▲2Power Index 56.9

Power Ranking

#26 ▲2Power Index 69.6

€421m14th in the league

Squad value

€408m15th in the league

Régis Le Brissince 1 Jul 2024 · 103 games · 1.51 pts/game

Head coach

Daniel Farkesince 4 Jul 2023 · 157 games · 1.78 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

31%Market 31%

Draw (X)

28%Market 29%

Away win (2)

41%Market 40%

Over 2.5 goals

45%Market 45%

Both teams to score

50%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Sunderland 1 - 1 Leeds United (12.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.8%
2. 0 - 111.2%
3. 1 - 09.6%
4. 1 - 28.6%
5. 0 - 08.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Leeds United

Goals scored by Sunderland

01234508.411.27.53.31.10.319.612.88.63.81.30.325.57.34.92.20.70.232.12.81.80.80.30.140.60.80.50.20.10.050.10.20.10.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Sunderland

Last 5, most recent first

DLWLL

Goals per game, for / against1.2 / 2.2

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-3

Leeds United

Last 5, most recent first

DLDWD

Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 1.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-3-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-1

Form and team news

Sunderland

1 W1 D3 L1.2 for2.2 against

Sunderland have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 per game.

Leeds United

1 W3 D1 L1.4 for1.0 against

Leeds United have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Sunderland

25/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United

31/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayCoventry City

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAHomeDinamo Zagreb

Next matches of Leeds United

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwaySunderland

31/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayAFC Bournemouth

7/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeTottenham Hotspur

Our model gives Sunderland win 31%, draw 28%, Leeds United win 41%. over 2.5 goals 45%. both teams to score 50%. expected goals 1.14 - 1.34. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.