Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior, 2026-10-25, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 13:15 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•11:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Fortuna Sittard

VS11:15 GMT

Excelsior

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.13

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

63%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Team comparison

Fortuna Sittard

VS

Excelsior

#202Power Index 37.6

Power Ranking

#204 ▼10Power Index 37.5

€20m16th in the league

Squad value

€21m14th in the league

Danny Buijssince 1 Jul 2023 · 119 games · 1.24 pts/game

Head coach

Darren Maatsensince 1 Jul 2025 · 0 games

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 Excelsior

PROBABILITY

10.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.5Exp. cards 2.9

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Fortuna Sittard

41%2.432.35

Draw

24%4.123.60

Excelsior

35%2.892.75

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Fortuna Sittard or draw

65%1.53—

Excelsior or draw

59%1.70—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.221.15

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.634.50

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.651.58

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.532.30

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.622.30

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.621.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

63%1.59—

Not both score (NG)

37%2.68—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

68%1.46—

Under 7.5 corners

32%3.16—

Over 8.5 corners

57%1.74—

Under 8.5 corners

43%2.35—

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.15—

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.87—

Over 10.5 corners

36%2.76—

Under 10.5 corners

64%1.57—

Over 11.5 corners

27%3.67—

Under 11.5 corners

73%1.37—

Over 12.5 corners

20%5.06—

Under 12.5 corners

80%1.25—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

77%1.30—

Under 1.5 cards

23%4.34—

Over 2.5 cards

54%1.84—

Under 2.5 cards

46%2.18—

Over 3.5 cards

33%3.07—

Under 3.5 cards

67%1.48—

Over 4.5 cards

17%5.85—

Under 4.5 cards

83%1.21—

Over 5.5 cards

8%12.07—

Under 5.5 cards

92%1.09—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Fortuna Sittard

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 7-9

LWWDD

DANEC Nijmegen2-2

DHFC Twente1-1

WARacing Genk2-1

WAWillem II1-0

LHAjax Amsterdam1-5

Excelsior

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 6-15

DLDLL

LAHeerenveen0-4

LHFC Groningen1-5

DAAjax Amsterdam2-2

LHFC Utrecht1-2

DANEC Nijmegen2-2

Head-to-head

2026-02-20

Fortuna Sittard2 - 1Excelsior

2025-10-19

Excelsior1 - 0Fortuna Sittard

2024-03-03

Fortuna Sittard5 - 2Excelsior

2023-08-26

Excelsior2 - 2Fortuna Sittard

2023-05-21

Excelsior3 - 0Fortuna Sittard

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

41%Market 40%

Draw (X)

24%Market 26%

Away win (2)

35%Market 34%

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market 61%

Both teams to score

63%Market: —

Expected goals

1.6 - 1.5

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 Excelsior (10.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.7%
2. 2 - 18.8%
3. 1 - 28.0%
4. 1 - 07.2%
5. 2 - 26.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Excelsior

Goals scored by Fortuna Sittard

01234504.46.54.92.40.90.317.210.78.03.91.50.425.98.86.53.21.20.433.24.83.61.80.70.241.32.01.50.70.30.150.40.60.50.20.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Fortuna Sittard

Last 5, most recent first

DDWLW

Goals per game, for / against1.6 / 2.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-2-0

Excelsior

Last 5, most recent first

LLDLD

Goals per game, for / against1.2 / 3.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-3

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-2-1

Form and team news

Fortuna Sittard

2 W2 D1 L1.6 for2.0 against

Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.0 per game.

Excelsior

0 W2 D3 L1.2 for3.0 against

Excelsior have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 3.0 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Fortuna Sittard

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeExcelsior

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayFeyenoord Rotterdam

7/11/2026 · NED.1HomeTelstar

Next matches of Excelsior

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwayFortuna Sittard

1/11/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Twente

7/11/2026 · NED.1HomeGo Ahead Eagles

Our model gives Fortuna Sittard win 41%, draw 24%, Excelsior win 35%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 63%. expected goals 1.64 - 1.49. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.