Braga vs C.D. Nacional prediction, tips and odds

Next match: C.D. Nacional vs Braga, 2026-10-25, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 20:00 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•18:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

C.D. Nacional

VS18:00 GMT

Braga

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.71

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

51%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

C.D. Nacional 0 - 1 Braga

PROBABILITY

12.5%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 4.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

C.D. Nacional

16%6.235.50

Draw

23%4.414.00

Braga

61%1.631.56

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

C.D. Nacional or draw

39%2.58—

Braga or draw

84%1.19—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.29—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

76%1.32—

Under 1.5 goals

24%4.10—

Over 2.5 goals

51%1.971.83

Under 2.5 goals

49%2.031.87

Over 3.5 goals

29%3.48—

Under 3.5 goals

71%1.40—

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

48%2.07—

Not both score (NG)

52%1.94—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

66%1.51—

Under 7.5 corners

34%2.94—

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.82—

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.22—

Over 9.5 corners

44%2.28—

Under 9.5 corners

56%1.78—

Over 10.5 corners

34%2.96—

Under 10.5 corners

66%1.51—

Over 11.5 corners

25%3.99—

Under 11.5 corners

75%1.34—

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.55—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.22—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 2.5 cards

16%6.17—

Over 3.5 cards

69%1.46—

Under 3.5 cards

31%3.18—

Over 4.5 cards

51%1.98—

Under 4.5 cards

49%2.03—

Over 5.5 cards

34%2.96—

Under 5.5 cards

66%1.51—

Over 6.5 cards

21%4.87—

Under 6.5 cards

79%1.26—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER38%

add_circleBraga

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.37

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

C.D. Nacional

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · goals 3-13

LLLLL

LASanjoanense0-1

LARio Ave2-3

LHFC Famalicao0-4

LHAlverca1-3

LASporting CP0-2

Braga

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 3-8

WDLLL

LHGil Vicente1-2

LAF.C. København0-3

LHSporting CP1-3

DASanta Clara0-0

WHEstoril1-0

Head-to-head

2026-02-28

C.D. Nacional1 - 2Braga

2025-11-23

Braga4 - 2C.D. Nacional

2025-09-28

Braga0 - 1C.D. Nacional

2025-02-21

Braga1 - 0C.D. Nacional

2024-09-20

C.D. Nacional0 - 3Braga

compare_arrows

Team comparison

C.D. Nacional

VS

Braga

#186 ▼1Power Index 40.1

Power Ranking

#51 ▼3Power Index 62.7

€22m16th in the league

Squad value

€159m4th in the league

Alexandre Santos NEWsince 8 Sep 2026 · 4 games · 0.00 pts/game

Head coach

Carlos Vicenssince 1 Jul 2025 · 75 games · 1.89 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

16%Market 16%

Draw (X)

23%Market 22%

Away win (2)

61%Market 62%

Over 2.5 goals

51%Market 51%

Both teams to score

48%Market: —

Expected goals

0.8 - 1.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: C.D. Nacional 0 - 1 Braga (12.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 112.5%
2. 0 - 211.6%
3. 1 - 110.5%
4. 1 - 29.8%
5. 0 - 37.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Braga

Goals scored by C.D. Nacional

01234506.712.511.67.23.41.315.610.59.86.12.81.122.44.44.12.61.20.430.71.21.20.70.30.140.10.30.20.20.10.050.00.00.00.00.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

C.D. Nacional

Last 5, most recent first

LLLLL

Goals per game, for / against1.0 / 3.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-3

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-1-3

Braga

Last 5, most recent first

LLLDW

Goals per game, for / against0.6 / 1.6

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-2

Form and team news

C.D. Nacional

0 W0 D5 L1.0 for3.0 against

C.D. Nacional have 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.0 per game.

Braga

1 W1 D3 L0.6 for1.6 against

Braga have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of C.D. Nacional

25/10/2026 · POR.1HomeBraga

1/11/2026 · POR.1AwayArouca

7/11/2026 · POR.1HomeAcadémico de Viseu

Next matches of Braga

25/10/2026 · POR.1AwayC.D. Nacional

1/11/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Famalicao

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPA.CONFAwayAGF

Our model gives C.D. Nacional win 16%, draw 23%, Braga win 61%. over 2.5 goals 51%. both teams to score 48%. expected goals 0.84 - 1.87. largest gap to the market: Braga win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.