Ajax Amsterdam vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam, 2026-10-25, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 17:45 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•15:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Sparta Rotterdam

VS15:45 GMT

Ajax Amsterdam

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.64

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

70%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Ajax Amsterdam

PROBABILITY

9.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.6Exp. cards 3.3

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Rotterdam

17%5.785.00

Draw

19%5.344.70

Ajax Amsterdam

64%1.561.51

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

36%2.78—

Ajax Amsterdam or draw

83%1.21—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.23—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

88%1.14—

Under 1.5 goals

12%8.39—

Over 2.5 goals

70%1.42—

Under 2.5 goals

30%3.39—

Over 3.5 goals

49%2.02—

Under 3.5 goals

51%1.98—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

64%1.56—

Not both score (NG)

36%2.80—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

78%1.29—

Under 7.5 corners

22%4.48—

Over 8.5 corners

68%1.47—

Under 8.5 corners

32%3.15—

Over 9.5 corners

58%1.73—

Under 9.5 corners

42%2.38—

Over 10.5 corners

48%2.10—

Under 10.5 corners

52%1.91—

Over 11.5 corners

38%2.65—

Under 11.5 corners

62%1.60—

Over 12.5 corners

29%3.46—

Under 12.5 corners

71%1.41—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

83%1.20—

Under 1.5 cards

17%5.91—

Over 2.5 cards

64%1.57—

Under 2.5 cards

36%2.75—

Over 3.5 cards

42%2.37—

Under 3.5 cards

58%1.73—

Over 4.5 cards

24%4.09—

Under 4.5 cards

76%1.32—

Over 5.5 cards

13%7.80—

Under 5.5 cards

87%1.15—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Sparta Rotterdam

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-15

DLLDW

WHWillem II3-2

DAGo Ahead Eagles3-3

LHHeerenveen0-4

LAPSV Eindhoven1-4

DHPEC Zwolle2-2

Ajax Amsterdam

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 14-8

WDDLW

WAFC Groningen5-2

LAHajduk Split1-2

DHNEC Nijmegen1-1

DHExcelsior2-2

WHWillem II5-1

Head-to-head

2026-03-14

Ajax Amsterdam4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam

2025-10-04

Sparta Rotterdam3 - 3Ajax Amsterdam

2025-04-27

Ajax Amsterdam1 - 1Sparta Rotterdam

2024-12-22

Sparta Rotterdam0 - 2Ajax Amsterdam

2024-03-17

Sparta Rotterdam2 - 2Ajax Amsterdam

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Team comparison

Sparta Rotterdam

VS

Ajax Amsterdam

#194 ▼5Power Index 39.0

Power Ranking

#79 ▼2Power Index 56.7

€32m10th in the league

Squad value

€228m3rd in the league

Rogier Meijersince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.00 pts/game

Head coach

Míchel Sánchezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.13 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

17%Market 17%

Draw (X)

19%Market 19%

Away win (2)

64%Market 64%

Over 2.5 goals

70%Market: —

Both teams to score

64%Market: —

Expected goals

1.2 - 2.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Ajax Amsterdam (9.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 29.4%
2. 0 - 27.7%
3. 1 - 17.7%
4. 1 - 37.6%
5. 0 - 16.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Ajax Amsterdam

Goals scored by Sparta Rotterdam

01234502.66.47.76.33.81.913.27.79.47.64.62.221.94.75.74.62.81.430.81.92.31.91.10.540.20.60.70.60.30.250.10.10.20.10.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Sparta Rotterdam

Last 5, most recent first

WDLLD

Goals per game, for / against1.8 / 3.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-2

Ajax Amsterdam

Last 5, most recent first

WWLDD

Goals per game, for / against2.2 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-3-1

Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1

Form and team news

Sparta Rotterdam

1 W2 D2 L1.8 for3.0 against

Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 per game.

Ajax Amsterdam

2 W2 D1 L2.2 for1.4 against

Ajax Amsterdam have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Sparta Rotterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAjax Amsterdam

1/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Groningen

7/11/2026 · NED.1AwayADO Den Haag

Next matches of Ajax Amsterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwaySparta Rotterdam

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAZ Alkmaar

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPA.CONFAwayFC Midtjylland

Our model gives Sparta Rotterdam win 17%, draw 19%, Ajax Amsterdam win 64%. over 2.5 goals 70%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 1.21 - 2.43. largest gap to the market: Sparta Rotterdam win (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.