Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Atalanta vs Frosinone, 2026-10-25, Italian Serie A, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Atalanta

VS14:00 GMT

Frosinone

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.62

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

70%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

68%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 11.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

Under 11.5 corners

Expected corners: Atalanta 5.8, Frosinone 4.2, total 10.0 (line 11.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Atalanta x1.01, Frosinone x1.10 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.42

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Atalanta 2 - 1 Frosinone

PROBABILITY

9.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 3.2

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atalanta

54%1.871.80

Draw

21%4.744.00

Frosinone

25%3.953.65

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atalanta or draw

75%1.34—

Frosinone or draw

46%2.15—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.27—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

88%1.141.12

Under 1.5 goals

12%8.245.00

Over 2.5 goals

70%1.431.38

Under 2.5 goals

30%3.342.80

Over 3.5 goals

49%2.052.05

Under 3.5 goals

51%1.961.77

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

68%1.47—

Not both score (NG)

32%3.13—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

73%1.37—

Under 7.5 corners

27%3.72—

Over 8.5 corners

63%1.591.32

Under 8.5 corners

37%2.693.00

Over 9.5 corners

52%1.921.57

Under 9.5 corners

48%2.092.25

Over 10.5 corners

42%2.402.02

Under 10.5 corners

58%1.711.70

Over 11.5 corners

32%3.112.60

Under 11.5 corners

68%1.471.42

Over 12.5 corners

24%4.16—

Under 12.5 corners

76%1.32—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 cards

18%5.65—

Over 2.5 cards

62%1.611.65

Under 2.5 cards

38%2.652.10

Over 3.5 cards

41%2.452.50

Under 3.5 cards

59%1.691.45

Over 4.5 cards

23%4.29—

Under 4.5 cards

77%1.30—

Over 5.5 cards

12%8.28—

Under 5.5 cards

88%1.14—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%

add_circleAtalanta

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.98

BUILDER42%

add_circleAtalanta

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.23

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Atalanta

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 9-9

LLWWL

LAAC Milan2-3

WHPafos3-1

WHVenezia3-1

LAJuventus0-2

LHCagliari1-2

Frosinone

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 9-7

DWWLW

WHSassuolo4-2

LANapoli0-3

WHBenevento2-1

WHComo2-0

DAGenoa1-1

Head-to-head

2024-01-15

Atalanta5 - 0Frosinone

2023-08-26

Frosinone2 - 1Atalanta

2019-01-20

Frosinone0 - 5Atalanta

2018-08-20

Atalanta4 - 0Frosinone

2016-01-23

Frosinone0 - 0Atalanta

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Team comparison

Atalanta

VS

Frosinone

#32 ▲2Power Index 68.2

Power Ranking

#143 ▲4Power Index 46.8

€449m6th in the league

Squad value

€114m18th in the league

Maurizio Sarrisince 15 Jun 2026 · 10 games · 1.60 pts/game

Head coach

Massimiliano Alvinisince 2 Jul 2025 · 49 games · 2.04 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

54%Market 53%

Draw (X)

21%Market 22%

Away win (2)

25%Market 25%

Over 2.5 goals

70%Market 69%

Both teams to score

68%Market: —

Expected goals

2.2 - 1.5

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Atalanta 2 - 1 Frosinone (9.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.1%
2. 1 - 18.4%
3. 2 - 26.6%
4. 3 - 16.6%
5. 2 - 06.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Frosinone

Goals scored by Atalanta

01234502.73.92.81.40.50.115.88.46.13.01.10.326.39.16.63.21.20.334.56.64.82.30.80.242.53.62.61.30.50.151.11.51.10.50.20.1

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Atalanta

Last 5, most recent first

LLWWL

Goals per game, for / against1.6 / 1.8

Home, W-D-L (last 10)4-0-1

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-0-4

Frosinone

Last 5, most recent first

WLWDW

Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 1.6

Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-1

Form and team news

Atalanta

2 W0 D3 L1.6 for1.8 against

Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game.

Frosinone

3 W1 D1 L2.0 for1.6 against

Frosinone have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Atalanta

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeFrosinone

29/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayFiorentina

2/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeParma

Next matches of Frosinone

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayAtalanta

29/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeLecce

1/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeTorino

Our model gives Atalanta win 54%, draw 21%, Frosinone win 25%. over 2.5 goals 70%. both teams to score 68%. expected goals 2.16 - 1.45. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.