Bayer Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction, tips and odds

Next match: TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-10-25, German Bundesliga, kickoff 16:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•14:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

TSG Hoffenheim

VS14:30 GMT

Bayer Leverkusen

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.58

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

69%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

70%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

TSG Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen

PROBABILITY

8.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.1Exp. cards 3.9

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

TSG Hoffenheim

35%2.822.65

Draw

22%4.453.80

Bayer Leverkusen

42%2.382.25

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

TSG Hoffenheim or draw

58%1.73—

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

65%1.55—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.29—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

87%1.141.12

Under 1.5 goals

13%7.985.10

Over 2.5 goals

69%1.441.38

Under 2.5 goals

31%3.262.80

Over 3.5 goals

48%2.081.95

Under 3.5 goals

52%1.921.85

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

70%1.44—

Not both score (NG)

30%3.28—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

73%1.36—

Under 7.5 corners

27%3.76—

Over 8.5 corners

63%1.58—

Under 8.5 corners

37%2.72—

Over 9.5 corners

52%1.911.43

Under 9.5 corners

48%2.102.55

Over 10.5 corners

42%2.381.82

Under 10.5 corners

58%1.731.88

Over 11.5 corners

33%3.072.25

Under 11.5 corners

67%1.481.53

Over 12.5 corners

24%4.113.00

Under 12.5 corners

76%1.321.30

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.14—

Over 2.5 cards

74%1.351.30

Under 2.5 cards

26%3.893.05

Over 3.5 cards

55%1.821.75

Under 3.5 cards

45%2.221.95

Over 4.5 cards

36%2.77—

Under 4.5 cards

64%1.56—

Over 5.5 cards

21%4.72—

Under 5.5 cards

79%1.27—

Over 6.5 cards

11%8.71—

Under 6.5 cards

89%1.13—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER37%

add_circleBayer Leverkusen

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.50

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

TSG Hoffenheim

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 9-13

LLLLW

WABorussia Mönchengladbach2-1

LHBesiktas2-3

LHHamburg SV2-3

LHSV Elversberg2-3

LASC Paderborn 071-3

Bayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 14-4

WWWWW

WHSC Freiburg2-1

WALech Poznan4-0

WAMainz4-3

WHRB Leipzig2-0

WHNK Celje2-0

Head-to-head

2026-01-17

TSG Hoffenheim1 - 0Bayer Leverkusen

2025-08-23

Bayer Leverkusen1 - 2TSG Hoffenheim

2025-02-02

Bayer Leverkusen3 - 1TSG Hoffenheim

2024-09-14

TSG Hoffenheim1 - 4Bayer Leverkusen

2024-03-30

Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1TSG Hoffenheim

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Team comparison

TSG Hoffenheim

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

#78 ▼3Power Index 56.7

Power Ranking

#18 ▲2Power Index 75.3

€288m6th in the league

Squad value

€520m3rd in the league

Christian Ilzersince 15 Nov 2024 · 74 games · 1.35 pts/game

Head coach

Carles Martínezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

35%Market 35%

Draw (X)

22%Market 24%

Away win (2)

42%Market 42%

Over 2.5 goals

69%Market 69%

Both teams to score

70%Market: —

Expected goals

1.7 - 1.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: TSG Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen (8.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 18.9%
2. 1 - 28.3%
3. 2 - 17.6%
4. 2 - 27.1%
5. 0 - 15.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bayer Leverkusen

Goals scored by TSG Hoffenheim

01234502.85.24.93.01.40.514.88.98.35.22.40.924.17.67.14.42.10.832.34.34.12.51.20.441.01.91.71.10.50.250.30.60.60.40.20.1

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

TSG Hoffenheim

Last 5, most recent first

WWLLL

Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 2.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-3

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-3

Bayer Leverkusen

Last 5, most recent first

WWWWW

Goals per game, for / against2.8 / 0.8

Home, W-D-L (last 10)4-0-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-1

Form and team news

TSG Hoffenheim

2 W0 D3 L2.0 for2.0 against

TSG Hoffenheim have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game.

Bayer Leverkusen

5 W0 D0 L2.8 for0.8 against

Bayer Leverkusen have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of TSG Hoffenheim

25/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBayer Leverkusen

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayWerder Bremen

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAAwayCrystal Palace

Next matches of Bayer Leverkusen

25/10/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeVfB Stuttgart

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAHomeMarseille

Our model gives TSG Hoffenheim win 35%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen win 42%. over 2.5 goals 69%. both teams to score 70%. expected goals 1.71 - 1.87. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.