FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, tips and odds

Next match: NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen, 2026-10-25, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 15:30 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•13:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

NEC Nijmegen

VS13:30 GMT

FC Groningen

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.46

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

67%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

68%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 68%.

Indicative odds: 1.40

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 FC Groningen

PROBABILITY

9.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 3.1

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

NEC Nijmegen

42%2.392.30

Draw

23%4.363.85

FC Groningen

35%2.842.65

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

NEC Nijmegen or draw

65%1.54—

FC Groningen or draw

58%1.72—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.30—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.161.13

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.254.80

Over 2.5 goals

67%1.491.42

Under 2.5 goals

33%3.042.65

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.202.00

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.831.75

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

68%1.48—

Not both score (NG)

32%3.10—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

73%1.37—

Under 7.5 corners

27%3.69—

Over 8.5 corners

63%1.60—

Under 8.5 corners

37%2.67—

Over 9.5 corners

52%1.93—

Under 9.5 corners

48%2.07—

Over 10.5 corners

41%2.42—

Under 10.5 corners

59%1.71—

Over 11.5 corners

32%3.13—

Under 11.5 corners

68%1.47—

Over 12.5 corners

24%4.20—

Under 12.5 corners

76%1.31—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

80%1.25—

Under 1.5 cards

20%4.97—

Over 2.5 cards

59%1.71—

Under 2.5 cards

41%2.41—

Over 3.5 cards

37%2.72—

Under 3.5 cards

63%1.58—

Over 4.5 cards

20%4.94—

Under 4.5 cards

80%1.25—

Over 5.5 cards

10%9.87—

Under 5.5 cards

90%1.11—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER36%

add_circleNEC Nijmegen

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.57

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5: 0W 4D 1L · goals 5-10

LDDDD

DHFortuna Sittard2-2

DHLevski Sofia1-1

DAAjax Amsterdam1-1

DHGo Ahead Eagles1-1

LAJuventus0-5

FC Groningen

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 13-9

DDWWL

LHAjax Amsterdam2-5

WAExcelsior5-1

WHPEC Zwolle3-0

DAGo Ahead Eagles1-1

DHFC Twente2-2

Head-to-head

2026-05-10

FC Groningen2 - 1NEC Nijmegen

2025-11-09

NEC Nijmegen2 - 0FC Groningen

2025-02-08

FC Groningen2 - 1NEC Nijmegen

2024-11-03

NEC Nijmegen6 - 0FC Groningen

2023-04-25

FC Groningen0 - 1NEC Nijmegen

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Team comparison

NEC Nijmegen

VS

FC Groningen

#136 ▼9Power Index 47.9

Power Ranking

#167 ▼8Power Index 43.0

€57m8th in the league

Squad value

€47m9th in the league

Dick Schreudersince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.62 pts/game

Head coach

Dick Lukkiensince 1 Jul 2023 · 124 games · 1.54 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

42%Market 41%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

35%Market 35%

Over 2.5 goals

67%Market 67%

Both teams to score

68%Market: —

Expected goals

1.8 - 1.6

Most likely final scores

Most likely: NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 FC Groningen (9.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 19.4%
2. 2 - 18.5%
3. 1 - 27.7%
4. 2 - 27.0%
5. 1 - 05.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by FC Groningen

Goals scored by NEC Nijmegen

01234503.25.24.32.31.00.315.79.47.74.21.70.625.28.57.03.81.60.533.15.14.22.31.00.341.42.31.91.00.40.150.50.80.70.40.20.1

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5, most recent first

WDDDD

Goals per game, for / against1.8 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)0-4-1

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-2

FC Groningen

Last 5, most recent first

LWWDD

Goals per game, for / against2.6 / 1.8

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-1

Form and team news

NEC Nijmegen

1 W4 D0 L1.8 for1.4 against

NEC Nijmegen have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 per game.

FC Groningen

2 W2 D1 L2.6 for1.8 against

FC Groningen have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.8 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of NEC Nijmegen

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayHeerenveen

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAHomeOmonia Nicosia

Next matches of FC Groningen

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwayNEC Nijmegen

1/11/2026 · NED.1HomeSparta Rotterdam

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayAZ Alkmaar

Our model gives NEC Nijmegen win 42%, draw 23%, FC Groningen win 35%. over 2.5 goals 67%. both teams to score 68%. expected goals 1.81 - 1.65. largest gap to the market: NEC Nijmegen win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.