Football predictions 06/10/2026
Football predictions for 06/10/2026 from the AI Goal Lab model: 9 picks across 1 competitions. Each pick shows a probability, the odds and the numeric reasoning. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties.
Today's tipsbolt Real-time model output
Picks and results
Nature of output:Model estimates, not guarantees
local_fire_department TOP PICK OF THE DAYstars UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEschedule Kickoff 18:45 GMT
Fixture:
Albania vs San Marino
OUR SELECTION
Over 3.5 goals
ODDS
@1.55
PROB.
86%
trending_up
Statistical Edge: Model probability 86%, fair odds 1.16, published odds 1.55. No market-implied comparison is available for this pick. Estimate, not a guarantee.
sports_soccer Fixtures Evaluated
PICKS ARE LOGGED BEFORE KICKOFF
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 86%
AlbaniaVS
San Marino1
97%
@1.01
X
3%
@16.00
2
1%
@31.00
FREE TIPGOALS & BTTS
Over 3.5 goals
ODDS1.55
PROB.86%
LostpsychologyWhy this pick
- Our probability: 86%.
warningStakes and news check: Albania: Cake, κομβικότητα άγνωστη, αμφίβολος. Αλβανία 2η με 6β, San Marino 0β με γκολ 0-14. Ενδεκάδες άγνωστες, ρίσκο ρεπό (έπαιξαν πριν 7 ημέρες).
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 5.44 - 0.75Elo 1/X/2 99% / 0% / 1%
197% mkt 98%
X3% mkt 1%
21% mkt 0%
O2.594%
BTTS53%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
91% → 91%
-0.4 pp
X
6% → 5%
-0.6 pp
2
3% → 4%
+1.1 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 66%
EstoniaVS
Iceland1
18%
@5.50
X
24%
@3.90
2
58%
@1.57
FREE TIP1X2 / DOUBLE CHANCEMODEL VS MARKET -18 pp
X2 (Iceland or draw)
EST. ODDS~1.44
PROB.66%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Model 66% vs 84% implied by the market.
warningStakes and news check: Estonia: Sappinen (ΕΠ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Sinyavskiy (ΑΜ), κομβικότητα άγνωστη, αμφίβολος. Iceland: Olafsson (ΤΡ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Ingason (ΑΜ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Thordarson (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Hlynsson (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός. Αέρας 23 km/h στο Ταλίν. Οι απουσίες είναι από αναφορές Σεπτεμβρίου, ανεπιβεβαίωτες για σήμερα.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 0.86 - 1.75Elo 1/X/2 26% / 27% / 47%
118% mkt 16%
X24% mkt 23%
258% mkt 61%
O2.549% mkt 49%
BTTS48%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
17% → 17%
-0.1 pp
X
24% → 25%
+1.1 pp
2
59% → 58%
-1.0 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 77%
LuxembourgVS
Bulgaria1
44%
@2.20
X
29%
@3.05
2
27%
@3.45
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.64
PROB.77%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Expected corners: Luxembourg 4.1, Bulgaria 2.9, total 6.9 (line 9.5).
- Corners-for rate vs average: Luxembourg x0.82, Bulgaria x0.71 (sample 24 and 24 equivalent matches).
- Elo: Luxembourg 48%, Bulgaria 25%.
warningStakes and news check: Luxembourg: Korac (ΑΜ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Martins (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Thill (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Sinani (ΜΕ), κομβικότητα άγνωστη, αμφίβολος. Bulgaria: Chochev (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Despodov (ΕΠ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός; Krastev (ΜΕ), όχι κομβικός, εκτός. Οι απουσίες είναι από preview ανεπιβεβαίωτης ημερομηνίας. Ενδεκάδες άγνωστες.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.27 - 0.93Elo 1/X/2 48% / 27% / 25%
144% mkt 44%
X29% mkt 30%
227% mkt 26%
O2.538% mkt 37%
BTTS44%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
43% → 40%
-2.6 pp
X
30% → 32%
+1.7 pp
2
27% → 28%
+0.9 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 73%
MoldovaVS
Slovakia1
12%
@7.85
X
20%
@4.75
2
67%
@1.37
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 10.5 corners
ODDS1.51
PROB.73%
LostpsychologyWhy this pick
- Expected corners: Moldova 2.9, Slovakia 5.4, total 8.3 (line 10.5).
- Corners-for rate vs average: Moldova x0.91, Slovakia x1.26 (sample 24 and 25 equivalent matches).
- Elo: Moldova 15%, Slovakia 67%.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 0.73 - 2.02Elo 1/X/2 15% / 19% / 67%
112% mkt 11%
X20% mkt 18%
267% mkt 71%
O2.552% mkt 53%
BTTS45%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
12% → 12%
+0.0 pp
X
20% → 21%
+0.9 pp
2
68% → 67%
-0.9 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 14:00 GMT
KazakhstanVS
Faroe Islands1
39%
@2.42
X
30%
@3.00
2
31%
@3.05
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.18 - 1.02Elo 1/X/2 47% / 27% / 26%
139% mkt 38%
X30% mkt 31%
231% mkt 31%
O2.538% mkt 37%
BTTS45%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
38% → 38%
+0.6 pp
X
31% → 32%
+1.0 pp
2
31% → 29%
-1.6 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
CroatiaVS
Spain1
11%
@9.75
X
16%
@6.00
2
73%
@1.28
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 0.90 - 2.53Elo 1/X/2 12% / 15% / 73%
111% mkt 9%
X16% mkt 14%
273% mkt 77%
O2.567%
BTTS55%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
10% → 10%
-0.6 pp
X
16% → 16%
+0.0 pp
2
74% → 74%
+0.6 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
EnglandVS
Czechia1
86%
@1.09
X
9%
@10.00
2
5%
@21.00
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 3.43 - 0.78Elo 1/X/2 94% / 3% / 3%
186% mkt 89%
X9% mkt 7%
25% mkt 3%
O2.579%
BTTS52%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
84% → 84%
+0.0 pp
X
10% → 10%
+0.0 pp
2
5% → 5%
+0.0 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
ScotlandVS
Slovenia1
54%
@1.74
X
27%
@3.35
2
19%
@4.90
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.50 - 0.78Elo 1/X/2 53% / 25% / 22%
154% mkt 55%
X27% mkt 27%
219% mkt 18%
O2.540% mkt 40%
BTTS43%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (5 SNAPSHOTS)
1
53% → 51%
-2.0 pp
X
28% → 30%
+2.1 pp
2
19% → 19%
-0.1 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
SwitzerlandVS
North Macedonia1
88%
@1.08
X
9%
@9.50
2
4%
@20.00
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 3.44 - 0.67Elo 1/X/2 92% / 4% / 4%
188% mkt 91%
X9% mkt 7%
24% mkt 3%
O2.578%
BTTS48%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
86% → 87%
+1.6 pp
X
10% → 9%
-1.0 pp
2
5% → 4%
-0.6 pp
fact_check
At a glance
9
EVALUATED
9
PUBLISHED
9
FREE
We evaluate every fixture and publish only the picks that pass our probability and odds filters. A combo appears when at least two open picks qualify.
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