Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Luxembourg

VS18:45 GMT

Bulgaria

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.20

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

38%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

44%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 9.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

77%

ODDS

1.64

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 LuxembourgX2 Bulgaria

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Luxembourg (1)	43%	40.3%	2.48	trending_down-2.6 pp
Draw (X)	30.3%	32%	3.13	trending_up+1.7 pp
Bulgaria (2)	26.8%	27.7%	3.61	trending_up+0.9 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK77%

Under 9.5 corners

Expected corners: Luxembourg 4.1, Bulgaria 2.9, total 6.9 (line 9.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Luxembourg x0.82, Bulgaria x0.71 (sample 24 and 24 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.64

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Luxembourg 1 - 0 Bulgaria

PROBABILITY

14.1%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 6.9Exp. cards 5.1Elo 1422 vs 1411

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Luxembourg

44%2.282.20

Draw

29%3.413.05

Bulgaria

27%3.743.45

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Luxembourg or draw

73%1.371.28

Bulgaria or draw

56%1.781.62

Either team wins (no draw)

71%1.421.34

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

65%1.541.48

Under 1.5 goals

35%2.862.65

Over 2.5 goals

38%2.652.50

Under 2.5 goals

62%1.611.54

Over 3.5 goals

18%5.524.35

Under 3.5 goals

82%1.221.18

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

44%2.272.00

Not both score (NG)

56%1.781.72

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

40%2.481.44

Under 7.5 corners

60%1.682.75

Over 8.5 corners

31%3.261.74

Under 8.5 corners

69%1.442.05

Over 9.5 corners

23%4.382.20

Under 9.5 corners

77%1.301.64

Over 10.5 corners

17%5.922.90

Under 10.5 corners

83%1.201.40

Over 11.5 corners

13%7.914.00

Under 11.5 corners

87%1.141.23

Over 12.5 corners

10%10.265.50

Under 12.5 corners

90%1.111.13

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

92%1.09—

Under 1.5 cards

8%11.93—

Over 2.5 cards

84%1.18—

Under 2.5 cards

16%6.42—

Over 3.5 cards

72%1.38—

Under 3.5 cards

28%3.60—

Over 4.5 cards

57%1.76—

Under 4.5 cards

43%2.31—

Over 5.5 cards

41%2.44—

Under 5.5 cards

59%1.69—

Over 6.5 cards

28%3.63—

Under 6.5 cards

72%1.38—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER49%

add_circleUnder 2.5 goals

add_circleNot both score (NG)

Indicative odds: 1.89

BUILDER48%

add_circleLuxembourg or draw

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.87

BUILDER48%

add_circleLuxembourg or draw

add_circleUnder 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.89

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Luxembourg

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 3-6

LWWLL

LAEstonia0-1

LHIceland0-3

WABulgaria2-1

WAAlbania1-0

LHItaly0-1

Bulgaria

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 3-8

LDLDL

LAIceland0-3

DHEstonia0-0

LHLuxembourg1-2

DAMoldova2-2

LHMontenegro0-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-26

Bulgaria1 - 2Luxembourg

2024-11-15

Luxembourg0 - 1Bulgaria

2024-10-12

Bulgaria0 - 0Luxembourg

2022-11-20

Luxembourg0 - 0Bulgaria

2017-10-10

Luxembourg1 - 1Bulgaria

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

44%Market 44%

Draw (X)

29%Market 30%

Away win (2)

27%Market 26%

Over 2.5 goals

38%Market 37%

Both teams to score

44%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 0.9

Elo rating probabilities

Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Luxembourg 1 - 0 Bulgaria (14.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 014.1%
2. 1 - 113.1%
3. 0 - 011.1%
4. 0 - 110.3%
5. 2 - 08.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bulgaria

Goals scored by Luxembourg

012345011.110.34.81.50.30.1114.113.16.11.90.40.128.98.33.91.20.30.133.83.51.60.50.10.041.21.10.50.20.00.050.30.30.10.00.00.0

Our model gives Luxembourg win 44%, draw 29%, Bulgaria win 27%. over 2.5 goals 38%. both teams to score 44%. expected goals 1.27 - 0.93. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.