Albania vs San Marino prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Albania vs San Marino, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Albania

VS18:45 GMT

San Marino

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

6.19

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

94%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

86%

ODDS

1.55

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AlbaniaX2 San Marino

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Albania (1)	91.3%	90.8%	1.10	trending_down-0.4 pp
Draw (X)	5.8%	5.1%	19.42	trending_down-0.6 pp
San Marino (2)	3%	4%	24.81	trending_up+1.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK86%

Over 3.5 goals

Our probability: 86%.

Odds: 1.55

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Albania 5 - 0 San Marino

PROBABILITY

8.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.1Exp. cards 3.8Elo 1612 vs 820

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Albania

97%1.041.01

Draw

3%40.0016.00

San Marino

1%100.2331.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Albania or draw

99%1.01—

San Marino or draw

4%28.59—

Either team wins (no draw)

98%1.03—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

99%1.021.04

Under 1.5 goals

1%67.607.90

Over 2.5 goals

94%1.061.18

Under 2.5 goals

6%18.124.10

Over 3.5 goals

86%1.161.55

Under 3.5 goals

14%7.252.40

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.90—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.11—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

53%1.89—

Under 7.5 corners

47%2.12—

Over 8.5 corners

42%2.361.39

Under 8.5 corners

58%1.742.77

Over 9.5 corners

33%3.021.75

Under 9.5 corners

67%1.491.96

Over 10.5 corners

25%3.972.23

Under 10.5 corners

75%1.341.58

Over 11.5 corners

19%5.252.95

Under 11.5 corners

81%1.241.35

Over 12.5 corners

14%6.94—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.17—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

85%1.18—

Under 1.5 cards

15%6.70—

Over 2.5 cards

70%1.421.40

Under 2.5 cards

30%3.372.75

Over 3.5 cards

52%1.931.96

Under 3.5 cards

48%2.071.75

Over 4.5 cards

34%2.92—

Under 4.5 cards

66%1.52—

Over 5.5 cards

21%4.73—

Under 5.5 cards

79%1.27—

Over 6.5 cards

13%7.76—

Under 6.5 cards

87%1.15—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Albania

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-4

LLWWL

LAFinland1-2

WASan Marino3-0

WHBelarus2-0

LHLuxembourg0-1

LHIsrael0-1

San Marino

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · goals 2-18

LLLLL

LABelarus0-4

LHAlbania0-3

LHFinland0-7

LAAzerbaijan1-2

LHBangladesh1-2

Head-to-head

2026-09-29

San Marino0 - 3Albania

2021-09-08

Albania5 - 0San Marino

2021-03-31

San Marino0 - 2Albania

2014-06-08

San Marino0 - 3Albania

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

97%Market 98%

Draw (X)

3%Market 1%

Away win (2)

1%Market 0%

Over 2.5 goals

94%Market: —

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

5.4 - 0.7

Elo rating probabilities

Home 99%Draw 0%Away 1%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Albania 5 - 0 San Marino (8.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 5 - 08.1%
2. 4 - 07.5%
3. 5 - 16.1%
4. 4 - 15.6%
5. 3 - 05.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by San Marino

Goals scored by Albania

01234500.20.20.10.00.00.011.10.80.30.10.00.023.02.30.90.20.00.035.54.11.50.40.10.047.55.62.10.50.10.058.16.12.30.60.10.0

Our model gives Albania win 97%, draw 3%, San Marino win 1%. over 2.5 goals 94%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 5.44 - 0.75. largest gap to the market: Albania win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.