Football predictions 05/10/2026
Football predictions for 05/10/2026 from the AI Goal Lab model: 8 picks across 1 competitions. Each pick shows a probability, the odds and the numeric reasoning. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties.
Today's tipsbolt Real-time model output
Picks and results
Nature of output:Model estimates, not guarantees
local_fire_department TOP PICK OF THE DAYstars UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEschedule Kickoff 18:45 GMT
Fixture:
Northern Ireland vs Georgia
OUR SELECTION
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS
@1.53
PROB.
72%
trending_up
Statistical Edge: Model probability 72%, fair odds 1.38, published odds 1.53. No market-implied comparison is available for this pick. Estimate, not a guarantee.
sports_soccer Fixtures Evaluated
PICKS ARE LOGGED BEFORE KICKOFF
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 65%
FranceVS
Belgium1
64%
@1.44
X
20%
@4.50
2
15%
@6.00
FREE TIP1X2 / DOUBLE CHANCEMODEL VS MARKET -2 pp
1 (France)
ODDS1.44
PROB.65%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Model 65% vs 67% implied by the market.
warningStakes and news check: In Nations League Group A1, France have 7 points and Belgium 6 after 3 matches, so the game decides the top spot. Belgium are without suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans, and France without Upamecano (suspended), Guendouzi (suspended) and Zaire-Emery (injured).
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.15 - 0.95Elo 1/X/2 61% / 22% / 18%
164% mkt 67%
X20% mkt 19%
215% mkt 14%
O2.560%
BTTS55%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (2 SNAPSHOTS)
1
64% → 64%
+0.3 pp
X
20% → 21%
+0.4 pp
2
16% → 15%
-0.7 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 69%
ItalyVS
Türkiye1
69%
@1.35
X
19%
@4.90
2
12%
@7.50
FREE TIP1X2 / DOUBLE CHANCEMODEL VS MARKET -3 pp
1 (Italy)
ODDS1.35
PROB.69%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Model 69% vs 72% implied by the market.
warningStakes and news check: Türkiye are without Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz (suspended) and Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz (injured). Italy have no major absences but may rotate. Italy are 3rd with 4 points and Türkiye bottom with 0, so both need a win: Italy for the 3rd place that leads to a relegation playoff for League A (the top tier of the Nations League), Türkiye to avoid finishing last.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.26 - 0.85
169% mkt 72%
X19% mkt 17%
212% mkt 11%
O2.560%
BTTS51%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
68% → 69%
+1.2 pp
X
19% → 19%
-0.3 pp
2
13% → 12%
-0.8 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 71%
MontenegroVS
Armenia1
66%
@1.42
X
20%
@4.50
2
14%
@6.50
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.70
PROB.71%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Αναμενόμενα κόρνερ: Montenegro 4.6, Armenia 3.0, σύνολο 7.6 (γραμμή 9.5).
- Ρυθμός κόρνερ υπέρ σε σχέση με τον μέσο όρο: Montenegro x1.02, Armenia x1.07 (δείγμα 24 και 24 ισοδύναμοι αγώνες).
- Χάσμα δύναμης: Montenegro φαβορί (διαφορά P νίκης 46 μονάδες). Το μοντέλο δίνει περίπου +14% κόρνερ στο φαβορί, επειδή πιέζει περισσότερο.
- Elo: Montenegro 67%, Armenia 15%.
- Πιθανότητά μας: 71%. Στο backtest (41.000 αγώνες), tips με παρόμοια πιθανότητα βγήκαν 71%.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.12 - 0.87Elo 1/X/2 67% / 19% / 15%
166% mkt 68%
X20% mkt 19%
214% mkt 13%
O2.557% mkt 59%
BTTS51%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (5 SNAPSHOTS)
1
61% → 66%
+4.3 pp
X
22% → 20%
-1.8 pp
2
17% → 14%
-2.5 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 72%
Northern IrelandVS
Georgia1
40%
@2.35
X
31%
@2.90
2
29%
@3.20
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.53
PROB.72%
LostpsychologyWhy this pick
- Αναμενόμενα κόρνερ: Northern Ireland 3.7, Georgia 3.8, σύνολο 7.5 (γραμμή 9.5).
- Ρυθμός κόρνερ υπέρ σε σχέση με τον μέσο όρο: Northern Ireland x0.88, Georgia x0.99 (δείγμα 24 και 25 ισοδύναμοι αγώνες).
- Elo: Northern Ireland 54%, Georgia 21%.
- Πιθανότητά μας: 72%. Στο backtest (41.000 αγώνες), tips με παρόμοια πιθανότητα βγήκαν 71%.
warningStakes and news check: Northern Ireland (7 points, top of Group B2) are without Dan Ballard (hamstring) and are chasing promotion to League A, the top tier of the Nations League. Georgia (1 point, bottom) are without Otar Kiteishvili and need a win, so neither side is playing for a draw.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.12 - 0.90Elo 1/X/2 54% / 24% / 21%
140% mkt 40%
X31% mkt 32%
229% mkt 29%
O2.533%
BTTS40%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
38% → 39%
+0.9 pp
X
32% → 32%
-0.5 pp
2
29% → 29%
-0.4 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 67%
UkraineVS
Hungary1
36%
@2.65
X
32%
@2.85
2
32%
@2.85
FREE TIPGOALS & BTTS
Over 1.5 goals
ODDS1.50
PROB.67%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Αναμενόμενα γκολ: Ukraine 1.20, Hungary 1.08 (σύνολο 2.28).
- Η αγορά (DraftKings (ESPN), χωρίς margin) δίνει 1 37%, X 31%, 2 32%.
- Elo (World Football Elo (eloratings.net), ratings της 2026-10-05): 1 52%, X 25%, 2 23%.
- Πιθανότητα Over 1.5 γκολ: 67% από την κατανομή Poisson με τα παραπάνω γκολ.
- Πιθανότητά μας: 67%. Στο backtest (41.000 αγώνες), tips με παρόμοια πιθανότητα βγήκαν 69%.
warningStakes and news check: Κύριοι παίκτες εκτός λόγω τραυματισμών: Dovbyk (Bologna), Mykolenko και Mudryk. Μείωση επιθετικής δύναμης Ουκρανίας μπορεί να επηρεάσει τα γκολ.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.02 - 0.95Elo 1/X/2 52% / 25% / 23%
136% mkt 35%
X32% mkt 32%
232% mkt 32%
O2.532%
BTTS40%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
37% → 35%
-1.9 pp
X
31% → 33%
+1.8 pp
2
32% → 33%
+0.2 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 16:00 GMTCyprusVSLatvia
1
61%
@1.53
X
24%
@3.80
2
15%
@6.00
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.75 - 0.74Elo 1/X/2 56% / 24% / 20%
161% mkt 63%
X24% mkt 23%
215% mkt 14%
O2.545% mkt 46%
BTTS44%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
57% → 61%
+3.6 pp
X
25% → 25%
-0.3 pp
2
18% → 14%
-3.4 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
Bosnia-HerzegovinaVS
Poland1
35%
@2.75
X
27%
@3.20
2
37%
@2.50
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.25 - 1.29Elo 1/X/2 41% / 28% / 31%
135% mkt 34%
X27% mkt 29%
237% mkt 37%
O2.547% mkt 47%
BTTS52%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
32% → 34%
+1.9 pp
X
28% → 29%
+1.1 pp
2
40% → 37%
-3.0 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
RomaniaVS
Sweden1
21%
@4.70
X
23%
@4.10
2
57%
@1.61
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.08 - 1.92Elo 1/X/2 27% / 27% / 46%
121% mkt 19%
X23% mkt 22%
257% mkt 60%
O2.558%
BTTS57%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (6 SNAPSHOTS)
1
23% → 20%
-3.8 pp
X
24% → 23%
-1.5 pp
2
52% → 58%
+5.3 pp
fact_check
At a glance
8
EVALUATED
8
PUBLISHED
8
FREE
We evaluate every fixture and publish only the picks that pass our probability and odds filters. A combo appears when at least two open picks qualify.
layersCoupons and Bet Builders
Daily coupons, 3+ leg builders and big-odds slips (5x to 1000x) live on their own page. They do not count in the hit rate of the single tips on this page.
open_in_newSee the full results archivesend
Get the daily picks in Telegram
Free channel with the same published picks and the evening results.
JOIN FREE CHANNEL arrow_forward