Croatia vs Spain prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Croatia vs Spain, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Croatia

VS18:45 GMT

Spain

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.43

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

67%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 CroatiaX2 Spain

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Croatia (1)	10.3%	9.8%	10.26	trending_down-0.6 pp
Draw (X)	16.2%	16.1%	6.20	trending_flat-0.0 pp
Spain (2)	73.5%	74.1%	1.35	trending_up+0.6 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Croatia 0 - 2 Spain

PROBABILITY

10.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.4Exp. cards 3.0Elo 1861 vs 2282

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Croatia

11%9.159.75

Draw

16%6.086.00

Spain

73%1.381.28

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Croatia or draw

27%3.653.65

Spain or draw

89%1.121.05

Either team wins (no draw)

84%1.201.12

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.171.12

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.066.25

Over 2.5 goals

67%1.501.37

Under 2.5 goals

33%2.993.05

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.242.07

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.811.75

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

55%1.831.71

Not both score (NG)

45%2.212.07

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

65%1.531.32

Under 7.5 corners

35%2.893.20

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.801.57

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.252.35

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.191.94

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.841.82

Over 10.5 corners

36%2.742.50

Under 10.5 corners

64%1.571.51

Over 11.5 corners

28%3.513.35

Under 11.5 corners

72%1.401.31

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.554.50

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.281.18

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

77%1.29—

Under 1.5 cards

23%4.43—

Over 2.5 cards

57%1.741.31

Under 2.5 cards

43%2.353.15

Over 3.5 cards

37%2.681.75

Under 3.5 cards

63%1.591.95

Over 4.5 cards

22%4.54—

Under 4.5 cards

78%1.28—

Over 5.5 cards

13%7.81—

Under 5.5 cards

87%1.15—

Over 6.5 cards

8%12.29—

Under 6.5 cards

92%1.09—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%

add_circleSpain or draw

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER47%

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

add_circleBoth score (GG)

Indicative odds: 1.81

BUILDER44%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.96

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Croatia

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-15

WLWLL

LHEngland0-7

LASpain1-4

WACzechia2-1

LAPortugal1-2

WHGhana2-1

Spain

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 13-4

WWWWW

WHCzechia3-1

WHCroatia4-1

WAEngland3-2

WHArgentina1-0

WAFrance2-0

Head-to-head

2026-09-29

Spain4 - 1Croatia

2024-06-15

Spain3 - 0Croatia

2023-06-18

Croatia0 - 0Spain

2021-06-28

Croatia3 - 5Spain

2018-11-15

Croatia3 - 2Spain

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

11%Market 9%

Draw (X)

16%Market 14%

Away win (2)

73%Market 77% -4

Over 2.5 goals

67%Market: —

Both teams to score

55%Market: —

Expected goals

0.9 - 2.5

Elo rating probabilities

Home 12%Draw 15%Away 73%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Croatia 0 - 2 Spain (10.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 210.4%
2. 1 - 29.3%
3. 0 - 38.8%
4. 0 - 18.2%
5. 1 - 37.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Spain

Goals scored by Croatia

01234503.38.210.48.85.62.812.97.49.37.95.02.521.33.34.23.52.21.130.41.01.21.10.70.340.10.20.30.20.10.150.00.00.00.00.00.0

Our model gives Croatia win 11%, draw 16%, Spain win 73%. over 2.5 goals 67%. both teams to score 55%. expected goals 0.90 - 2.53. largest gap to the market: Spain win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.