Scotland vs Slovenia prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Scotland vs Slovenia, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Scotland

VS18:45 GMT

Slovenia

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.29

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

40%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

43%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ScotlandX2 Slovenia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Scotland (1)	53.3%	51.3%	1.95	trending_down-2.0 pp
Draw (X)	27.7%	29.8%	3.35	trending_up+2.1 pp
Slovenia (2)	19%	18.9%	5.30	trending_flat-0.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Scotland 1 - 0 Slovenia

PROBABILITY

15.3%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.8Exp. cards 3.8Elo 1746 vs 1690

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Scotland

54%1.851.74

Draw

27%3.723.35

Slovenia

19%5.224.90

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Scotland or draw

81%1.24—

Slovenia or draw

46%2.17—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.37—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

67%1.491.45

Under 1.5 goals

33%3.032.60

Over 2.5 goals

40%2.502.35

Under 2.5 goals

60%1.671.60

Over 3.5 goals

20%5.054.20

Under 3.5 goals

80%1.251.20

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

43%2.35—

Not both score (NG)

57%1.74—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

60%1.671.40

Under 7.5 corners

40%2.492.75

Over 8.5 corners

50%2.021.75

Under 8.5 corners

51%1.981.96

Over 9.5 corners

40%2.522.27

Under 9.5 corners

60%1.661.56

Over 10.5 corners

31%3.223.10

Under 10.5 corners

69%1.451.32

Over 11.5 corners

24%4.20—

Under 11.5 corners

76%1.31—

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.51—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.22—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

85%1.18—

Under 1.5 cards

15%6.63—

Over 2.5 cards

70%1.431.56

Under 2.5 cards

30%3.342.27

Over 3.5 cards

51%1.942.30

Under 3.5 cards

49%2.061.55

Over 4.5 cards

34%2.94—

Under 4.5 cards

66%1.51—

Over 5.5 cards

21%4.78—

Under 5.5 cards

79%1.26—

Over 6.5 cards

13%7.85—

Under 6.5 cards

87%1.15—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%

add_circleScotland

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.09

BUILDER39%

add_circleScotland

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.34

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Scotland

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 2-7

LLDLW

WANorth Macedonia2-0

LHSwitzerland0-3

DASlovenia0-0

LHBrazil0-3

LHMorocco0-1

Slovenia

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 5-5

DLDWL

LASwitzerland1-2

WHNorth Macedonia2-0

DHScotland0-0

LACroatia1-2

DHCyprus1-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-26

Slovenia0 - 0Scotland

2017-10-08

Slovenia2 - 2Scotland

2017-03-26

Scotland1 - 0Slovenia

2012-02-29

Slovenia1 - 1Scotland

2005-10-12

Slovenia0 - 3Scotland

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

54%Market 55%

Draw (X)

27%Market 27%

Away win (2)

19%Market 18%

Over 2.5 goals

40%Market 40%

Both teams to score

43%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 0.8

Elo rating probabilities

Home 53%Draw 25%Away 22%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Scotland 1 - 0 Slovenia (15.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 015.3%
2. 1 - 112.0%
3. 2 - 011.5%
4. 0 - 010.1%
5. 2 - 19.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Slovenia

Goals scored by Scotland

012345010.18.03.10.80.20.0115.312.04.71.20.20.0211.59.03.50.90.20.035.84.51.80.50.10.042.21.70.70.20.00.050.70.50.20.10.00.0

Our model gives Scotland win 54%, draw 27%, Slovenia win 19%. over 2.5 goals 40%. both teams to score 43%. expected goals 1.50 - 0.78. largest gap to the market: Slovenia win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.