Estonia vs Iceland prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Estonia vs Iceland, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Estonia

VS18:45 GMT

Iceland

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.62

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

49%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

X2 (Iceland or draw)

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.44

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 EstoniaX2 Iceland

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Estonia (1)	16.9%	16.8%	5.95	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Draw (X)	23.9%	25%	4.00	trending_up+1.1 pp
Iceland (2)	59.2%	58.2%	1.72	trending_down-1.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

X2 (Iceland or draw)

Indicative odds: 1.44

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Estonia 0 - 1 Iceland

PROBABILITY

12.8%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.0Exp. cards 4.3Elo 1400 vs 1603

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Estonia

18%5.605.50

Draw

24%4.173.90

Iceland

58%1.721.57

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Estonia or draw

42%2.39—

Iceland or draw

82%1.22—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

74%1.351.25

Under 1.5 goals

26%3.833.60

Over 2.5 goals

49%2.061.90

Under 2.5 goals

51%1.941.90

Over 3.5 goals

27%3.742.95

Under 3.5 goals

73%1.361.35

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

48%2.08—

Not both score (NG)

52%1.93—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

52%1.921.44

Under 7.5 corners

48%2.092.60

Over 8.5 corners

42%2.401.85

Under 8.5 corners

58%1.711.85

Over 9.5 corners

32%3.102.45

Under 9.5 corners

68%1.481.49

Over 10.5 corners

25%4.07—

Under 10.5 corners

75%1.33—

Over 11.5 corners

19%5.40—

Under 11.5 corners

82%1.23—

Over 12.5 corners

14%7.14—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.16—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.13—

Under 1.5 cards

11%8.72—

Over 2.5 cards

77%1.29—

Under 2.5 cards

23%4.40—

Over 3.5 cards

61%1.64—

Under 3.5 cards

39%2.57—

Over 4.5 cards

44%2.29—

Under 4.5 cards

56%1.78—

Over 5.5 cards

29%3.48—

Under 5.5 cards

71%1.40—

Over 6.5 cards

18%5.56—

Under 6.5 cards

82%1.22—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER46%

add_circleIceland

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.85

BUILDER40%

add_circleIceland

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.12

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Estonia

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 3-4

WLDDW

WHLuxembourg1-0

DABulgaria0-0

DAIceland1-1

LARwanda0-2

WAKenya1-1

Iceland

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-5

LLDWW

WHBulgaria3-0

WALuxembourg3-0

DHEstonia1-1

LAArgentina0-3

LAJapan0-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-26

Iceland1 - 1Estonia

2023-01-08

Iceland1 - 1Estonia

2019-01-15

Iceland0 - 0Estonia

2015-03-31

Estonia1 - 1Iceland

2014-06-04

Iceland1 - 0Estonia

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

18%Market 16%

Draw (X)

24%Market 23%

Away win (2)

58%Market 61% -3

Over 2.5 goals

49%Market 49%

Both teams to score

48%Market: —

Expected goals

0.9 - 1.8

Elo rating probabilities

Home 26%Draw 27%Away 47%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Estonia 0 - 1 Iceland (12.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 112.8%
2. 0 - 211.2%
3. 1 - 111.1%
4. 1 - 29.7%
5. 0 - 07.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Iceland

Goals scored by Estonia

01234507.312.811.26.62.91.016.311.19.75.72.50.922.74.84.22.41.10.430.81.41.20.70.30.140.20.30.30.20.10.050.00.10.00.00.00.0

Our model gives Estonia win 18%, draw 24%, Iceland win 58%. over 2.5 goals 49%. both teams to score 48%. expected goals 0.86 - 1.75. largest gap to the market: Iceland win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.