Football predictions 04/10/2026
Football predictions for 04/10/2026 from the AI Goal Lab model: 2 picks across 1 competitions. Each pick shows a probability, the odds and the numeric reasoning. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties.
Today's tipsbolt Real-time model output
Picks and results
Nature of output:Model estimates, not guarantees
local_fire_department TOP PICK OF THE DAYstars UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEschedule Kickoff 18:45 GMT
Fixture:
Republic of Ireland vs Israel
OUR SELECTION
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS
@1.51
PROB.
69%
trending_up
Statistical Edge: Model probability 69%, fair odds 1.44, published odds 1.51. No market-implied comparison is available for this pick. Estimate, not a guarantee.
sports_soccer Fixtures Evaluated
PICKS ARE LOGGED BEFORE KICKOFF
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 69%
GreeceVSGermany
1
25%
—
X
24%
—
2
51%
—
FREE TIPCORNERS
Over 8.5 corners
ODDS1.55
PROB.69%
LostpsychologyWhy this pick
- Expected corners: Greece 4.6, Germany 6.2, total 10.9 (line 8.5).
- Corners-for rate vs average: Greece x1.27, Germany x1.69 (sample 24 and 25 equivalent matches).
- Elo: Greece 37%, Germany 35%.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.21 - 1.80Elo 1/X/2 37% / 29% / 35%
125% mkt 23%
X24% mkt 24%
251% mkt 53%
O2.558% mkt 60%
BTTS59%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTMODEL PROBABILITY: 69%
Republic of IrelandVSIsrael
1
46%
—
X
27%
—
2
27%
—
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.51
PROB.69%
WonpsychologyWhy this pick
- Expected corners: Republic of Ireland 4.6, Israel 3.3, total 7.8 (line 9.5).
- Corners-for rate vs average: Republic of Ireland x1.19, Israel x0.90 (sample 24 and 24 equivalent matches).
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.48 - 1.08
146% mkt 46%
X27% mkt 27%
227% mkt 27%
O2.547% mkt 47%
BTTS51%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 16:00 GMTKosovoVSAustria
1
27%
—
X
27%
—
2
46%
—
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.06 - 1.46Elo 1/X/2 32% / 28% / 39%
127% mkt 25%
X27% mkt 28%
246% mkt 48%
O2.546% mkt 47%
BTTS51%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 16:00 GMTMaltaVSAndorra
1
61%
—
X
26%
—
2
13%
—
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.53 - 0.56Elo 1/X/2 70% / 17% / 13%
161% mkt 62%
X26% mkt 26%
213% mkt 12%
O2.535%
BTTS34%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTNetherlandsVSSerbia
1
80%
—
X
12%
—
2
8%
—
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 3.08 - 0.93Elo 1/X/2 80% / 11% / 9%
180% mkt 83%
X12% mkt 11%
28% mkt 6%
O2.576%
BTTS58%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTPortugalVSNorway
1
58%
—
X
22%
—
2
20%
—
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.05 - 1.15Elo 1/X/2 64% / 20% / 16%
158% mkt 60%
X22% mkt 21%
220% mkt 19%
O2.562%
BTTS60%
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMTWalesVSDenmark
1
27%
—
X
26%
—
2
47%
—
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
analyticsRead the match analysisexpand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.13 - 1.57Elo 1/X/2 31% / 28% / 41%
127% mkt 25%
X26% mkt 27%
247% mkt 49%
O2.551% mkt 52%
BTTS54%
fact_check
At a glance
7
EVALUATED
2
PUBLISHED
2
FREE
We evaluate every fixture and publish only the picks that pass our probability and odds filters. A combo appears when at least two open picks qualify.
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