Moldova vs Slovakia prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Moldova vs Slovakia, 2026-10-06, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Moldova

VS18:45 GMT

Slovakia

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.75

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

52%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

45%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 10.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

73%

ODDS

1.51

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 MoldovaX2 Slovakia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Moldova (1)	12.3%	12.3%	8.11	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Draw (X)	19.7%	20.5%	4.87	trending_up+0.9 pp
Slovakia (2)	68%	67.1%	1.49	trending_down-0.9 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK73%

Under 10.5 corners

Expected corners: Moldova 2.9, Slovakia 5.4, total 8.3 (line 10.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Moldova x0.91, Slovakia x1.26 (sample 24 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.51

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Moldova 0 - 2 Slovakia

PROBABILITY

13.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.3Exp. cards 3.5Elo 1301 vs 1665

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Moldova

12%8.237.85

Draw

20%4.884.75

Slovakia

67%1.481.37

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Moldova or draw

33%3.062.95

Slovakia or draw

88%1.141.06

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.261.16

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

76%1.311.22

Under 1.5 goals

24%4.213.95

Over 2.5 goals

52%1.931.77

Under 2.5 goals

48%2.072.05

Over 3.5 goals

30%3.382.80

Under 3.5 goals

70%1.421.40

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

45%2.221.97

Not both score (NG)

55%1.821.74

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

55%1.811.32

Under 7.5 corners

45%2.233.20

Over 8.5 corners

45%2.241.57

Under 8.5 corners

55%1.812.35

Over 9.5 corners

35%2.841.94

Under 9.5 corners

65%1.541.84

Over 10.5 corners

27%3.702.47

Under 10.5 corners

73%1.371.51

Over 11.5 corners

20%4.883.30

Under 11.5 corners

80%1.261.31

Over 12.5 corners

16%6.444.50

Under 12.5 corners

84%1.181.18

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

83%1.21—

Under 1.5 cards

17%5.80—

Over 2.5 cards

66%1.51—

Under 2.5 cards

34%2.95—

Over 3.5 cards

47%2.14—

Under 3.5 cards

53%1.88—

Over 4.5 cards

30%3.37—

Under 4.5 cards

70%1.42—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.62—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.22—

Over 6.5 cards

11%9.20—

Under 6.5 cards

89%1.12—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%

add_circleSlovakia or draw

add_circleNot both score (NG)

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER48%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleNot both score (NG)

Indicative odds: 1.83

BUILDER48%

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

add_circleNot both score (NG)

Indicative odds: 1.97

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Moldova

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · goals 6-7

DDLDW

WAKazakhstan2-1

DHFaroe Islands1-1

LASlovakia0-2

DAArmenia1-1

DHBulgaria2-2

Slovakia

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 9-5

WDWWD

DAFaroe Islands1-1

WHKazakhstan2-1

WHMoldova2-0

DHMontenegro2-2

WHMalta2-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-26

Slovakia2 - 0Moldova

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

12%Market 11%

Draw (X)

20%Market 18%

Away win (2)

67%Market 71% -4

Over 2.5 goals

52%Market 53%

Both teams to score

45%Market: —

Expected goals

0.7 - 2.0

Elo rating probabilities

Home 15%Draw 19%Away 67%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Moldova 0 - 2 Slovakia (13.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 213.1%
2. 0 - 113.0%
3. 1 - 29.5%
4. 1 - 19.4%
5. 0 - 38.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Slovakia

Goals scored by Moldova

01234506.413.013.18.84.41.814.79.49.56.43.21.321.73.43.52.31.20.530.40.80.80.60.30.140.10.20.20.10.10.050.00.00.00.00.00.0

Our model gives Moldova win 12%, draw 20%, Slovakia win 67%. over 2.5 goals 52%. both teams to score 45%. expected goals 0.73 - 2.02. largest gap to the market: Slovakia win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.