Real Sociedad vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Union St.-Gilloise

VS16:45 GMT

Real Sociedad

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.97

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MODEL OVER 2.5

57%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

60%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Union St.-GilloiseX2 Real Sociedad

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Union St.-Gilloise (1)	38.1%	37%	2.70	trending_down-1.1 pp
Draw (X)	26.1%	26%	3.85	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Real Sociedad (2)	35.9%	37%	2.70	trending_up+1.1 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Union St.-Gilloise 1 - 1 Real Sociedad

PROBABILITY

11.3%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Union St.-Gilloise

39%2.552.50

Draw

25%3.993.65

Real Sociedad

36%2.802.65

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Union St.-Gilloise or draw

64%1.56—

Real Sociedad or draw

61%1.65—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

80%1.251.16

Under 1.5 goals

20%5.004.30

Over 2.5 goals

57%1.751.65

Under 2.5 goals

43%2.332.25

Over 3.5 goals

35%2.882.45

Under 3.5 goals

65%1.531.52

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

60%1.66—

Not both score (NG)

40%2.51—

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Union St.-Gilloise

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 14-3

WWWWD

DHOud-Heverlee Leuven1-1

WAAntwerp2-0

WAViktoria Plzen3-0

WHLommel SK5-0

WARoyal Charleroi SC3-2

Real Sociedad

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 10-11

WLLWW

WHDeportivo3-2

WAValencia3-2

LHAFC Bournemouth1-2

LHAtlético Madrid0-3

WAElche3-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

Union St.-Gilloise

VS

Real Sociedad

#41 ▲2Power Index 66.1

Power Ranking

#46 ▲3Power Index 64.6

€94m4th in the league

Squad value

€292m5th in the league

David Hubertsince 13 Oct 2025 · 55 games · 2.05 pts/game

Head coach

Pellegrino Matarazzosince 21 Dec 2025 · 37 games · 1.65 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

39%Market 38%

Draw (X)

25%Market 26%

Away win (2)

36%Market 36%

Over 2.5 goals

57%Market 58%

Both teams to score

60%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Union St.-Gilloise 1 - 1 Real Sociedad (11.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.3%
2. 2 - 18.6%
3. 1 - 28.2%
4. 1 - 07.8%
5. 0 - 17.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Real Sociedad

Goals scored by Union St.-Gilloise

01234505.17.45.42.60.90.317.811.38.23.91.40.426.08.66.23.01.10.333.04.43.21.50.60.241.21.71.20.60.20.150.40.50.40.20.10.0

Next matches of Union St.-Gilloise

25/10/2026 · BEL.1HomeCercle Brugge KSV

31/10/2026 · BEL.1AwayWaasland-Beveren

8/11/2026 · BEL.1HomeRacing Genk

Next matches of Real Sociedad

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayAthletic Club

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRayo Vallecano

Our model gives Union St.-Gilloise win 39%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad win 36%. over 2.5 goals 57%. both teams to score 60%. expected goals 1.53 - 1.45. largest gap to the market: Union St.-Gilloise win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.