AS Monaco vs CSKA Sofia prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco, 2026-10-15, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

CSKA Sofia

VS16:45 GMT

AS Monaco

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.94

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 CSKA SofiaX2 AS Monaco

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
CSKA Sofia (1)	16%	16.5%	6.05	trending_up+0.5 pp
Draw (X)	20.5%	20.7%	4.84	trending_flat+0.2 pp
AS Monaco (2)	63.5%	62.8%	1.59	trending_down-0.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

CSKA Sofia 0 - 1 AS Monaco

PROBABILITY

10.5%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

CSKA Sofia

17%5.846.00

Draw

22%4.594.70

AS Monaco

61%1.641.51

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

CSKA Sofia or draw

39%2.57—

AS Monaco or draw

83%1.21—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.261.17

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.864.15

Over 2.5 goals

56%1.781.65

Under 2.5 goals

44%2.292.20

Over 3.5 goals

34%2.952.50

Under 3.5 goals

66%1.511.50

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.88—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.14—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%

add_circleAS Monaco

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.12

BUILDER38%

add_circleAS Monaco

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.27

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

CSKA Sofia

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 4-8

DWLLL

LHOFI Crete0-2

LAOFI Crete0-3

LHMaccabi Tel-Aviv1-3

WAMaccabi Tel-Aviv3-0

DHFK Qarabag0-0

AS Monaco

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 9-5

WDWWD

DHToulouse2-2

WHPisa2-0

WHLens2-1

DAStrasbourg1-1

WAParis Saint-Germain2-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

CSKA Sofia

VS

AS Monaco

—

Power Ranking

#42 ▼3Power Index 65.7

—

Squad value

€378m2nd in the league

—

Head coach

Filipe Luíssince 6 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 2.30 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

17%Market 15%

Draw (X)

22%Market 20%

Away win (2)

61%Market 65% -4

Over 2.5 goals

56%Market 58%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.0 - 2.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: CSKA Sofia 0 - 1 AS Monaco (10.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 110.5%
2. 0 - 210.4%
3. 1 - 110.0%
4. 1 - 29.9%
5. 0 - 36.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AS Monaco

Goals scored by CSKA Sofia

01234505.310.510.46.93.41.415.010.09.96.63.31.322.44.84.73.11.60.630.81.51.51.00.50.240.20.40.40.20.10.050.00.10.10.00.00.0

Next matches of AS Monaco

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLille

1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis FC

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLe Mans

Our model gives CSKA Sofia win 17%, draw 22%, AS Monaco win 61%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 0.95 - 1.99. largest gap to the market: AS Monaco win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.