Bayer Leverkusen vs Lech Poznan prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Lech Poznan

VS16:45 GMT

Bayer Leverkusen

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.33

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MODEL OVER 2.5

65%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

62%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Lech PoznanX2 Bayer Leverkusen

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Lech Poznan (1)	19.1%	14.6%	6.83	trending_down-4.4 pp
Draw (X)	20.3%	19%	5.25	trending_down-1.3 pp
Bayer Leverkusen (2)	60.7%	66.3%	1.51	trending_up+5.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lech Poznan 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen

PROBABILITY

9.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lech Poznan

20%4.885.00

Draw

21%4.754.70

Bayer Leverkusen

58%1.711.57

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lech Poznan or draw

42%2.41—

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

80%1.26—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.27—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.181.11

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.575.20

Over 2.5 goals

65%1.551.42

Under 2.5 goals

35%2.832.65

Over 3.5 goals

43%2.342.05

Under 3.5 goals

57%1.741.77

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

62%1.62—

Not both score (NG)

38%2.62—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER43%

add_circleBayer Leverkusen

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.96

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lech Poznan

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 16-8

WWDLD

DHEnergie Cottbus2-2

LACrystal Palace0-4

DAFC Thun2-2

WHFC Thun7-0

WAKI Klaksvik5-0

Bayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 14-5

WDWWW

WAMainz4-3

WHRB Leipzig2-0

WHNK Celje2-0

DAFC Augsburg2-2

WH1. FC Union Berlin4-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

Lech Poznan

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

—

Power Ranking

#18 ▲2Power Index 75.3

—

Squad value

€520m3rd in the league

—

Head coach

Carles Martínezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

20%Market 18%

Draw (X)

21%Market 20%

Away win (2)

58%Market 62% -4

Over 2.5 goals

65%Market 67%

Both teams to score

62%Market: —

Expected goals

1.2 - 2.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lech Poznan 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen (9.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 29.7%
2. 1 - 19.1%
3. 0 - 28.1%
4. 0 - 17.6%
5. 1 - 36.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bayer Leverkusen

Goals scored by Lech Poznan

01234503.67.68.15.83.11.314.39.19.76.93.71.622.65.55.84.22.20.931.02.22.31.70.90.440.30.70.70.50.30.150.10.20.20.10.10.0

Next matches of Bayer Leverkusen

25/10/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeVfB Stuttgart

8/11/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Cologne

Our model gives Lech Poznan win 20%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen win 58%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 62%. expected goals 1.20 - 2.13. largest gap to the market: Bayer Leverkusen win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.