Ajax Amsterdam vs Hajduk Split prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Hajduk Split vs Ajax Amsterdam, 2026-10-15, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Hajduk Split

VS16:45 GMT

Ajax Amsterdam

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.08

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Hajduk SplitX2 Ajax Amsterdam

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Hajduk Split (1)	20%	22.7%	4.40	trending_up+2.8 pp
Draw (X)	21.8%	23.3%	4.29	trending_up+1.5 pp
Ajax Amsterdam (2)	58.3%	54%	1.85	trending_down-4.3 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Hajduk Split 1 - 1 Ajax Amsterdam

PROBABILITY

10.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Hajduk Split

21%4.674.80

Draw

22%4.454.40

Ajax Amsterdam

56%1.781.65

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Hajduk Split or draw

44%2.28—

Ajax Amsterdam or draw

79%1.27—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.29—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.231.16

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.444.30

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.681.55

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.472.35

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.692.35

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.591.60

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.71—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.41—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleAjax Amsterdam

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER39%

add_circleAjax Amsterdam

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.20

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Hajduk Split

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 14-10

LWWDW

WARaków Czestochowa3-2

DHRaków Czestochowa2-2

WHZalgiris Vilnius4-0

WAZalgiris Vilnius5-2

LAPafos0-4

Ajax Amsterdam

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 14-8

LWWDD

DHNEC Nijmegen1-1

DHExcelsior2-2

WHWillem II5-1

WAFortuna Sittard5-1

LHPSV Eindhoven1-3

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

Hajduk Split

VS

Ajax Amsterdam

—

Power Ranking

#79 ▼2Power Index 56.7

—

Squad value

€228m3rd in the league

—

Head coach

Míchel Sánchezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.13 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

21%Market 19%

Draw (X)

22%Market 21%

Away win (2)

56%Market 59% -3

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market 61%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 2.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Hajduk Split 1 - 1 Ajax Amsterdam (10.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.1%
2. 1 - 29.9%
3. 0 - 18.9%
4. 0 - 28.7%
5. 1 - 36.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Ajax Amsterdam

Goals scored by Hajduk Split

01234504.68.98.75.72.81.115.210.19.96.43.11.222.95.75.63.61.80.731.12.22.11.40.70.340.30.60.60.40.20.150.10.10.10.10.00.0

Next matches of Ajax Amsterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwaySparta Rotterdam

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAZ Alkmaar

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Twente

Our model gives Hajduk Split win 21%, draw 22%, Ajax Amsterdam win 56%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.13 - 1.95. largest gap to the market: Ajax Amsterdam win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.