Ararat-Armenia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Jagiellonia Bialystok

VS19:00 GMT

Ararat-Armenia

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.04

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

51%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Jagiellonia BialystokX2 Ararat-Armenia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Jagiellonia Bialystok (1)	68.1%	65.9%	1.52	trending_down-2.1 pp
Draw (X)	19.2%	19.4%	5.15	trending_flat+0.3 pp
Ararat-Armenia (2)	12.8%	14.6%	6.83	trending_up+1.9 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2 - 0 Ararat-Armenia

PROBABILITY

11.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Jagiellonia Bialystok

67%1.491.41

Draw

20%5.135.00

Ararat-Armenia

13%7.527.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Jagiellonia Bialystok or draw

87%1.15—

Ararat-Armenia or draw

33%3.05—

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.24—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.241.15

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.244.50

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.711.60

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.412.35

Over 3.5 goals

36%2.772.40

Under 3.5 goals

64%1.571.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

51%1.94—

Not both score (NG)

49%2.06—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER46%

add_circleJagiellonia Bialystok

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.94

BUILDER40%

add_circleJagiellonia Bialystok

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.18

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Jagiellonia Bialystok

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 13-5

WWLWL

LHPolonia Warsaw1-2

WHFK Suduva5-0

LAOlympiacos1-2

WAIberia 19992-1

WHIberia 19994-0

Ararat-Armenia

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-7

LDWLW

WAArarat Yerevan4-0

LHSparta Prague1-4

WHCSU Craiova1-0

DACSU Craiova1-1

LANK Celje0-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

67%Market 70% -3

Draw (X)

20%Market 18%

Away win (2)

13%Market 12%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

51%Market: —

Expected goals

2.2 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2 - 0 Ararat-Armenia (11.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 011.4%
2. 1 - 010.4%
3. 2 - 19.8%
4. 1 - 19.0%
5. 3 - 08.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Ararat-Armenia

Goals scored by Jagiellonia Bialystok

01234504.84.11.80.50.10.0110.49.03.91.10.20.0211.49.84.21.20.30.038.27.13.10.90.20.044.53.91.70.50.10.052.01.70.70.20.00.0

Our model gives Jagiellonia Bialystok win 67%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia win 13%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 51%. expected goals 2.18 - 0.86. largest gap to the market: Jagiellonia Bialystok win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.