FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade, 2026-10-15, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

FC Lugano

VS16:45 GMT

Red Star Belgrade

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.91

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 FC LuganoX2 Red Star Belgrade

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
FC Lugano (1)	38.9%	45.3%	2.21	trending_up+6.4 pp
Draw (X)	25.8%	25.4%	3.94	trending_flat-0.4 pp
Red Star Belgrade (2)	35.3%	29.3%	3.41	trending_down-6.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Indicative odds: 1.42

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

FC Lugano 1 - 1 Red Star Belgrade

PROBABILITY

11.5%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Lugano

40%2.522.45

Draw

25%3.943.70

Red Star Belgrade

35%2.872.70

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Lugano or draw

65%1.54—

Red Star Belgrade or draw

60%1.66—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.34—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.27—

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.76—

Over 2.5 goals

56%1.801.69

Under 2.5 goals

44%2.252.15

Over 3.5 goals

33%3.01—

Under 3.5 goals

67%1.50—

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.70—

Not both score (NG)

41%2.44—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

FC Lugano

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 8-7

WDWDL

LHHellas Verona1-3

DAMaccabi Tel-Aviv1-1

WHMaccabi Tel-Aviv2-1

DANSI Runavik2-2

WHNSI Runavik2-0

Red Star Belgrade

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 9-8

WLLWL

LAViktoria Plzen1-5

WHViktoria Plzen3-0

LHHapoel Be'er0-2

LAHapoel Be'er0-1

WHLarne5-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

40%Market 39%

Draw (X)

25%Market 25%

Away win (2)

35%Market 35%

Over 2.5 goals

56%Market 57%

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: FC Lugano 1 - 1 Red Star Belgrade (11.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.5%
2. 2 - 18.7%
3. 1 - 08.2%
4. 1 - 28.1%
5. 0 - 17.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Red Star Belgrade

Goals scored by FC Lugano

01234505.57.65.32.50.90.218.211.58.13.81.30.426.28.76.12.81.00.333.14.43.11.40.50.141.21.61.20.50.20.150.40.50.30.20.10.0

Our model gives FC Lugano win 40%, draw 25%, Red Star Belgrade win 35%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 1.51 - 1.40. largest gap to the market: FC Lugano win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.