Lillestrom vs Sparta Prague prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Sparta Prague

VS16:45 GMT

Lillestrom

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.20

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

62%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Sparta PragueX2 Lillestrom

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Sparta Prague (1)	71.3%	65.2%	1.53	trending_down-6.1 pp
Draw (X)	17.4%	19%	5.27	trending_up+1.5 pp
Lillestrom (2)	11.3%	15.8%	6.33	trending_up+4.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Sparta Prague 2 - 0 Lillestrom

PROBABILITY

11.2%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Prague

70%1.421.34

Draw

18%5.595.50

Lillestrom

12%8.478.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sparta Prague or draw

88%1.13—

Lillestrom or draw

30%3.37—

Either team wins (no draw)

82%1.22—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

83%1.201.14

Under 1.5 goals

17%5.944.60

Over 2.5 goals

62%1.611.50

Under 2.5 goals

38%2.642.55

Over 3.5 goals

40%2.512.20

Under 3.5 goals

60%1.661.67

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.91—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.10—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER39%

add_circleSparta Prague

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.25

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Sparta Prague

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 11-12

LWLWW

WHVysocina Jihlava5-3

WAArarat-Armenia4-1

LALyon0-3

WHLyon2-1

LHAZ Alkmaar0-4

Lillestrom

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-8

WWLLD

DHMolde2-2

LAViking FK0-3

LHTorreense1-2

WHVålerenga2-0

WASK Brann2-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

70%Market 73% -3

Draw (X)

18%Market 16%

Away win (2)

12%Market 10%

Over 2.5 goals

62%Market 64%

Both teams to score

52%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Sparta Prague 2 - 0 Lillestrom (11.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 011.2%
2. 2 - 19.6%
3. 1 - 09.5%
4. 3 - 08.7%
5. 1 - 18.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Lillestrom

Goals scored by Sparta Prague

01234504.13.51.50.40.10.019.58.23.51.00.20.0211.29.64.11.20.30.038.77.53.20.90.20.045.14.41.90.50.10.052.42.10.90.30.10.0

Our model gives Sparta Prague win 70%, draw 18%, Lillestrom win 12%. over 2.5 goals 62%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 2.34 - 0.86. largest gap to the market: Sparta Prague win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.