AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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AZ Alkmaar

VS16:45 GMT

Hapoel Be'er

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.40

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MODEL OVER 2.5

66%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

54%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.41

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AZ AlkmaarX2 Hapoel Be'er

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AZ Alkmaar (1)	74%	64.8%	1.54	trending_down-9.2 pp
Draw (X)	16%	19.4%	5.16	trending_up+3.4 pp
Hapoel Be'er (2)	10.1%	15.8%	6.32	trending_up+5.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Indicative odds: 1.41

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Hapoel Be'er

PROBABILITY

10.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AZ Alkmaar

73%1.371.29

Draw

16%6.116.00

Hapoel Be'er

11%9.419.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AZ Alkmaar or draw

89%1.12—

Hapoel Be'er or draw

27%3.70—

Either team wins (no draw)

84%1.20—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.17—

Under 1.5 goals

14%6.89—

Over 2.5 goals

66%1.52—

Under 2.5 goals

34%2.94—

Over 3.5 goals

44%2.27—

Under 3.5 goals

56%1.79—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

54%1.86—

Not both score (NG)

46%2.16—

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 5-6

WDLWL

LAFeyenoord Rotterdam0-2

WHTelstar1-0

LASunderland0-1

DHWillem II1-1

WAHeerenveen3-2

Hapoel Be'er

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 7-6

WWWLD

DHDinamo Zagreb0-0

LASabah FK2-5

WHSabah FK2-1

WARed Star Belgrade2-0

WHRed Star Belgrade1-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

AZ Alkmaar

VS

Hapoel Be'er

#71 ▼2Power Index 58.0

Power Ranking

—

€161m4th in the league

Squad value

—

Lee-Roy Echteldsince 18 Jan 2026 · 37 games · 1.86 pts/game

Head coach

—

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

73%Market 76% -3

Draw (X)

16%Market 15%

Away win (2)

11%Market 9%

Over 2.5 goals

66%Market: —

Both teams to score

54%Market: —

Expected goals

2.5 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Hapoel Be'er (10.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 010.7%
2. 2 - 19.3%
3. 3 - 09.0%
4. 1 - 08.5%
5. 3 - 17.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Hapoel Be'er

Goals scored by AZ Alkmaar

01234503.32.91.30.40.10.018.57.43.20.90.20.0210.79.34.11.20.30.039.07.83.41.00.20.045.74.92.20.60.10.052.92.51.10.30.10.0

Next matches of AZ Alkmaar

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Twente

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayAjax Amsterdam

8/11/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen

Our model gives AZ Alkmaar win 73%, draw 16%, Hapoel Be'er win 11%. over 2.5 goals 66%. both teams to score 54%. expected goals 2.52 - 0.87. largest gap to the market: AZ Alkmaar win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.