Atalanta vs Pafos prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Atalanta vs Pafos, 2026-10-15, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Atalanta

VS19:00 GMT

Pafos

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.16

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

61%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AtalantaX2 Pafos

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Atalanta (1)	69.9%	71.6%	1.40	trending_up+1.7 pp
Draw (X)	18.2%	17.2%	5.80	trending_down-0.9 pp
Pafos (2)	11.9%	11.2%	8.97	trending_down-0.8 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Atalanta 2 - 0 Pafos

PROBABILITY

11.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atalanta

69%1.451.36

Draw

19%5.405.25

Pafos

12%8.018.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atalanta or draw

88%1.14—

Pafos or draw

31%3.23—

Either team wins (no draw)

82%1.23—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

83%1.21—

Under 1.5 goals

17%5.73—

Over 2.5 goals

61%1.64—

Under 2.5 goals

39%2.57—

Over 3.5 goals

39%2.58—

Under 3.5 goals

61%1.63—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.91—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.10—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Atalanta

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-7

WLLLW

WHVenezia3-1

LAJuventus0-2

LHCagliari1-2

LAAS Roma1-2

WHBologna1-0

Pafos

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 12-7

WLDDW

WHDinamo City4-2

DADinamo City1-1

DHRB Salzburg3-3

LARB Salzburg0-1

WHHajduk Split4-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

Atalanta

VS

Pafos

#32 ▲2Power Index 68.2

Power Ranking

—

€449m6th in the league

Squad value

—

Maurizio Sarrisince 15 Jun 2026 · 10 games · 1.60 pts/game

Head coach

—

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

69%Market 72% -3

Draw (X)

19%Market 17%

Away win (2)

12%Market 11%

Over 2.5 goals

61%Market: —

Both teams to score

52%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Atalanta 2 - 0 Pafos (11.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 011.1%
2. 1 - 09.7%
3. 2 - 19.7%
4. 3 - 08.5%
5. 1 - 18.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Pafos

Goals scored by Atalanta

01234504.33.71.60.50.10.019.78.53.71.10.20.0211.19.74.21.20.30.038.57.43.20.90.20.044.94.21.80.50.10.052.21.90.80.20.10.0

Next matches of Atalanta

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeFrosinone

29/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayFiorentina

2/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeParma

Our model gives Atalanta win 69%, draw 19%, Pafos win 12%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 2.29 - 0.87. largest gap to the market: Atalanta win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.