Benfica vs Celtic prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Benfica vs Celtic, 2026-10-15, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Benfica

VS19:00 GMT

Celtic

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.51

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

68%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 BenficaX2 Celtic

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Benfica (1)	77.8%	79.4%	1.26	trending_up+1.6 pp
Draw (X)	13.6%	12.7%	7.87	trending_down-0.9 pp
Celtic (2)	8.6%	7.9%	12.59	trending_down-0.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Benfica 2 - 0 Celtic

PROBABILITY

10.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Benfica

77%1.301.22

Draw

14%6.957.00

Celtic

8%11.9211.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Benfica or draw

92%1.09—

Celtic or draw

23%4.39—

Either team wins (no draw)

86%1.17—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

87%1.151.09

Under 1.5 goals

13%7.555.80

Over 2.5 goals

68%1.471.35

Under 2.5 goals

32%3.142.95

Over 3.5 goals

47%2.141.90

Under 3.5 goals

53%1.871.90

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.93—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER37%

add_circleBenfica

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.32

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Benfica

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 12-4

WWWLW

WHVitória de Guimaraes2-0

LAFC Porto1-3

WAAC Milan2-0

WHGil Vicente3-1

WAMoreirense4-0

Celtic

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 4-7

WLLLW

WAMotherwell2-0

LHRangers0-1

LHFerencvaros1-3

LARangers0-3

WASt Johnstone1-0

Head-to-head

2012-11-20

Benfica2 - 1Celtic

2012-09-19

Celtic0 - 0Benfica

2007-11-06

Celtic1 - 0Benfica

2007-10-24

Benfica1 - 0Celtic

2006-11-01

Benfica3 - 0Celtic

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Team comparison

Benfica

VS

Celtic

#11 ▲1Power Index 78.7

Power Ranking

#44 ▲1Power Index 65.3

€422m2nd in the league

Squad value

€123m2nd in the league

Marco Silvasince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.38 pts/game

Head coach

Martin O'Neillsince 5 Jan 2026 · 42 games · 2.29 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

77%Market 80% -3

Draw (X)

14%Market 12%

Away win (2)

8%Market 7%

Over 2.5 goals

68%Market 71% -3

Both teams to score

52%Market: —

Expected goals

2.7 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Benfica 2 - 0 Celtic (10.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 010.9%
2. 3 - 09.9%
3. 2 - 18.8%
4. 1 - 08.1%
5. 3 - 17.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Celtic

Goals scored by Benfica

01234503.02.41.00.30.10.018.16.52.60.70.10.0210.98.83.51.00.20.039.97.93.20.90.20.046.75.42.20.60.10.053.62.91.20.30.10.0

Next matches of Benfica

26/10/2026 · POR.1AwaySanta Clara

2/11/2026 · POR.1HomeAlverca

8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayEstrela

Next matches of Celtic

25/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayHibernian

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeDundee United

1/11/2026 · SCO.1AwayFalkirk

Our model gives Benfica win 77%, draw 14%, Celtic win 8%. over 2.5 goals 68%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 2.71 - 0.81. largest gap to the market: Benfica win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.