Cyprus vs Latvia prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Cyprus vs Latvia, 2026-10-05, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 19:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•16:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Cyprus

VS16:00 GMT

Latvia

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.49

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

45%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

44%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 CyprusX2 Latvia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Cyprus (1)	57.5%	61.1%	1.64	trending_up+3.6 pp
Draw (X)	25%	24.7%	4.06	trending_flat-0.3 pp
Latvia (2)	17.6%	14.2%	7.03	trending_down-3.4 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Cyprus 1 - 0 Latvia

PROBABILITY

14.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.0Exp. cards 3.4Elo 1336 vs 1256

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Cyprus

61%1.641.53

Draw

24%4.223.80

Latvia

15%6.596.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Cyprus or draw

85%1.18—

Latvia or draw

39%2.57—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.31—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

71%1.401.30

Under 1.5 goals

29%3.513.15

Over 2.5 goals

45%2.202.08

Under 2.5 goals

55%1.831.75

Over 3.5 goals

24%4.143.35

Under 3.5 goals

76%1.321.27

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

44%2.29—

Not both score (NG)

56%1.78—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

62%1.601.31

Under 7.5 corners

38%2.663.15

Over 8.5 corners

52%1.911.59

Under 8.5 corners

48%2.102.22

Over 9.5 corners

42%2.362.03

Under 9.5 corners

58%1.741.70

Over 10.5 corners

33%2.992.70

Under 10.5 corners

67%1.501.41

Over 11.5 corners

26%3.86—

Under 11.5 corners

74%1.35—

Over 12.5 corners

20%5.04—

Under 12.5 corners

80%1.25—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 cards

18%5.54—

Over 2.5 cards

65%1.551.36

Under 2.5 cards

35%2.832.90

Over 3.5 cards

45%2.221.85

Under 3.5 cards

55%1.821.85

Over 4.5 cards

28%3.54—

Under 4.5 cards

72%1.39—

Over 5.5 cards

17%5.94—

Under 5.5 cards

83%1.20—

Over 6.5 cards

10%9.70—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleCyprus

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER44%

add_circleCyprus

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.94

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Cyprus

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 6-3

DWLDW

WHArmenia2-0

DALatvia0-0

LAMontenegro1-2

WALiechtenstein2-0

DASlovenia1-1

Latvia

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 3-4

WWLDL

LHMontenegro1-2

DHCyprus0-0

LAArmenia0-2

WHGibraltar1-0

WAGibraltar1-0

Head-to-head

2026-09-28

Latvia0 - 0Cyprus

2024-03-21

Cyprus1 - 1Latvia

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

61%Market 63%

Draw (X)

24%Market 23%

Away win (2)

15%Market 14%

Over 2.5 goals

45%Market 46%

Both teams to score

44%Market: —

Expected goals

1.8 - 0.7

Elo rating probabilities

Home 56%Draw 24%Away 20%

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Cyprus 1 - 0 Latvia (14.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 014.4%
2. 2 - 012.6%
3. 1 - 110.8%
4. 2 - 19.4%
5. 0 - 08.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Latvia

Goals scored by Cyprus

01234508.26.12.30.60.10.0114.410.84.01.00.20.0212.69.43.50.90.20.037.45.52.00.50.10.043.22.40.90.20.00.051.10.80.30.10.00.0

Our model gives Cyprus win 61%, draw 24%, Latvia win 15%. over 2.5 goals 45%. both teams to score 44%. expected goals 1.75 - 0.74. largest gap to the market: Cyprus win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.