Romania vs Sweden prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: Romania vs Sweden, 2026-10-05, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time
HOMERomania
Sweden
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.00
MODEL OVER 2.5
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
6
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania (1) | 23.5% | 19.7% | 5.07 | trending_down-3.8 pp |
| Draw (X) | 24.1% | 22.6% | 4.42 | trending_down-1.5 pp |
| Sweden (2) | 52.4% | 57.7% | 1.73 | trending_up+5.3 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Romania 1 - 1 Sweden
10.3%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Romania
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 6-14
Poland0-6
Bosnia-Herzegovina2-4Sweden1-2
Wales2-1
Georgia1-1Sweden
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 7-7
Bosnia-Herzegovina1-1Poland3-1Romania2-1
France0-3
Japan1-1Head-to-head
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Romania 1 - 1 Sweden (10.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 110.3%
- 1 - 29.9%
- 0 - 19.5%
- 0 - 29.1%
- 1 - 36.3%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by Sweden
More matches on this day
Bosnia-Herzegovina
France
Italy
Montenegro
Northern Ireland
Ukraine
Our model gives Romania win 21%, draw 23%, Sweden win 57%. over 2.5 goals 58%. both teams to score 57%. expected goals 1.08 - 1.92. largest gap to the market: Sweden win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.