Italy vs Türkiye prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Italy vs Türkiye, 2026-10-05, UEFA Nations League, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Italy

VS18:45 GMT

Türkiye

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.11

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

51%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

1 (Italy)

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.35

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ItalyX2 Türkiye

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Italy (1)	67.5%	68.7%	1.46	trending_up+1.2 pp
Draw (X)	19.3%	18.9%	5.28	trending_flat-0.3 pp
Türkiye (2)	13.2%	12.4%	8.08	trending_down-0.8 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

1 (Italy)

Odds: 1.35

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Italy 2 - 0 Türkiye

PROBABILITY

11.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 4.4

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Italy

69%1.451.35

Draw

19%5.384.90

Türkiye

12%8.147.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Italy or draw

88%1.14—

Türkiye or draw

31%3.24—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.23—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.54—

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.66—

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.51—

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.65—

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.61—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

51%1.94—

Not both score (NG)

49%2.06—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

70%1.421.25

Under 7.5 corners

30%3.383.75

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.44

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.572.62

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.951.80

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.061.90

Over 10.5 corners

42%2.382.25

Under 10.5 corners

58%1.731.57

Over 11.5 corners

34%2.983.00

Under 11.5 corners

66%1.501.36

Over 12.5 corners

26%3.814.00

Under 12.5 corners

74%1.361.22

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.02—

Over 2.5 cards

78%1.28—

Under 2.5 cards

22%4.56—

Over 3.5 cards

62%1.61—

Under 3.5 cards

38%2.65—

Over 4.5 cards

45%2.22—

Under 4.5 cards

55%1.82—

Over 5.5 cards

30%3.35—

Under 5.5 cards

70%1.43—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.32—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.23—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Italy

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 7-4

WWLWD

DAFrance1-1

WATürkiye4-1

LHBelgium0-2

WAGreece1-0

WALuxembourg1-0

Türkiye

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 4-11

LWLLL

LABelgium0-3

LHItaly1-4

LHFrance0-1

WHUnited States3-2

LHParaguay0-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-28

Türkiye1 - 4Italy

2024-06-04

Italy0 - 0Türkiye

2022-03-29

Türkiye2 - 3Italy

2021-06-11

Türkiye0 - 3Italy

2006-11-15

Italy1 - 1Türkiye

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

69%Market 72% -3

Draw (X)

19%Market 17%

Away win (2)

12%Market 11%

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market: —

Both teams to score

51%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Italy 2 - 0 Türkiye (11.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 011.4%
2. 1 - 010.1%
3. 2 - 19.7%
4. 3 - 08.6%
5. 1 - 18.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Türkiye

Goals scored by Italy

01234504.53.81.60.50.10.0110.18.53.61.00.20.0211.49.74.11.20.20.038.67.33.10.90.20.044.94.11.70.50.10.052.21.90.80.20.00.0

Our model gives Italy win 69%, draw 19%, Türkiye win 12%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 51%. expected goals 2.26 - 0.85. largest gap to the market: Italy win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.