Valencia vs Villarreal prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Valencia vs Villarreal, 2026-10-24, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 19:30 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Valencia

VS16:30 GMT

Villarreal

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.88

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

55%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Odds: 1.45

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Valencia 1 - 1 Villarreal

PROBABILITY

11.5%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.5Exp. cards 4.0

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Valencia

31%3.223.10

Draw

25%3.953.70

Villarreal

44%2.292.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Valencia or draw

56%1.77—

Villarreal or draw

69%1.45—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.34—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.271.20

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.654.20

Over 2.5 goals

55%1.821.73

Under 2.5 goals

45%2.222.10

Over 3.5 goals

33%3.082.65

Under 3.5 goals

67%1.481.45

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.72—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.38—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

68%1.47—

Under 7.5 corners

32%3.14—

Over 8.5 corners

57%1.751.45

Under 8.5 corners

43%2.342.50

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.161.78

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.861.92

Over 10.5 corners

36%2.772.25

Under 10.5 corners

64%1.561.55

Over 11.5 corners

27%3.693.00

Under 11.5 corners

73%1.371.32

Over 12.5 corners

20%5.09—

Under 12.5 corners

80%1.24—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.49—

Over 2.5 cards

75%1.33—

Under 2.5 cards

25%4.01—

Over 3.5 cards

56%1.78—

Under 3.5 cards

44%2.27—

Over 4.5 cards

37%2.70—

Under 4.5 cards

63%1.59—

Over 5.5 cards

22%4.54—

Under 5.5 cards

78%1.28—

Over 6.5 cards

12%8.33—

Under 6.5 cards

88%1.14—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER35%

add_circleVillarreal

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.58

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Valencia

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 5-6

LWLDD

DHAthletic Club0-0

DARacing Santander2-2

LHReal Sociedad2-3

WAAlavés1-0

LASevilla0-1

Villarreal

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 9-7

WLWDL

LALiverpool3-4

DHElche0-0

WHNapoli3-1

LAReal Madrid0-1

WHLevante3-1

Head-to-head

2026-02-22

Villarreal2 - 1Valencia

2025-10-25

Valencia0 - 2Villarreal

2025-02-15

Villarreal1 - 1Valencia

2024-08-31

Valencia1 - 1Villarreal

2024-03-17

Villarreal1 - 0Valencia

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Team comparison

Valencia

VS

Villarreal

#77 ▲2Power Index 56.8

Power Ranking

#29 ▲4Power Index 68.6

€157m10th in the league

Squad value

€368m4th in the league

Javier Aguirre NEWsince 23 Sep 2026 · 2 games · 1.00 pts/game

Head coach

Iñigo Pérezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 1.09 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

31%Market 31%

Draw (X)

25%Market 25%

Away win (2)

44%Market 44%

Over 2.5 goals

55%Market 55%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 1.6

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Valencia 1 - 1 Villarreal (11.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.5%
2. 1 - 29.1%
3. 0 - 18.9%
4. 2 - 17.5%
5. 1 - 07.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Villarreal

Goals scored by Valencia

01234505.68.97.03.71.50.517.311.59.14.81.90.624.77.55.93.11.20.432.03.22.61.30.50.240.71.00.80.40.20.150.20.30.20.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Valencia

Last 5, most recent first

DDLWL

Goals per game, for / against1.0 / 1.2

Home, W-D-L (last 10)0-2-3

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-2

Villarreal

Last 5, most recent first

LDWLW

Goals per game, for / against1.8 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-4

Form and team news

Valencia

1 W2 D2 L1.0 for1.2 against

Valencia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game.

Villarreal

2 W1 D2 L1.8 for1.4 against

Villarreal have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Valencia

24/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeVillarreal

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayElche

7/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeReal Madrid

Next matches of Villarreal

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

30/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeEspanyol

3/11/2026 · UEFA.CHAMPIONSHomeParis Saint-Germain

Our model gives Valencia win 31%, draw 25%, Villarreal win 44%. over 2.5 goals 55%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.30 - 1.58. largest gap to the market: Valencia win (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.