Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur, 2026-10-24, English Premier League, kickoff 19:30 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Chelsea

VS16:30 GMT

Tottenham Hotspur

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.26

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

63%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Chelsea 2 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur

PROBABILITY

9.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.5Exp. cards 4.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Chelsea

57%1.751.69

Draw

22%4.634.30

Tottenham Hotspur

21%4.704.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Chelsea or draw

79%1.27—

Tottenham Hotspur or draw

43%2.33—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

84%1.191.15

Under 1.5 goals

16%6.214.50

Over 2.5 goals

63%1.581.50

Under 2.5 goals

37%2.722.50

Over 3.5 goals

41%2.442.25

Under 3.5 goals

59%1.691.65

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.64—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.57—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

77%1.30—

Under 7.5 corners

23%4.30—

Over 8.5 corners

67%1.49—

Under 8.5 corners

33%3.04—

Over 9.5 corners

57%1.761.45

Under 9.5 corners

43%2.312.45

Over 10.5 corners

46%2.161.80

Under 10.5 corners

54%1.861.90

Over 11.5 corners

36%2.742.25

Under 11.5 corners

64%1.571.55

Over 12.5 corners

28%3.592.95

Under 12.5 corners

72%1.391.33

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

84%1.20—

Under 2.5 cards

16%6.08—

Over 3.5 cards

68%1.47—

Under 3.5 cards

32%3.14—

Over 4.5 cards

50%1.991.55

Under 4.5 cards

50%2.012.25

Over 5.5 cards

33%3.002.10

Under 5.5 cards

67%1.501.65

Over 6.5 cards

20%4.94—

Under 6.5 cards

80%1.25—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER49%

add_circleChelsea

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.88

BUILDER41%

add_circleChelsea

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.22

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Chelsea

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 15-9

WDLWW

WAEverton2-0

WHAFC Bournemouth5-1

LABrentford0-3

DHHull City2-2

WHLeeds United6-3

Tottenham Hotspur

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 7-8

DLLDW

WHCoventry City3-1

DAManchester United1-1

LHAston Villa2-3

LALiverpool1-3

DHEverton0-0

Head-to-head

2026-05-19

Chelsea2 - 1Tottenham Hotspur

2025-11-01

Tottenham Hotspur0 - 1Chelsea

2025-04-03

Chelsea1 - 0Tottenham Hotspur

2024-12-08

Tottenham Hotspur3 - 4Chelsea

2024-05-02

Chelsea2 - 0Tottenham Hotspur

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Team comparison

Chelsea

VS

Tottenham Hotspur

#10 ▲1Power Index 79.1

Power Ranking

#22 ▲1Power Index 70.9

€1.08bn3rd in the league

Squad value

€824m6th in the league

Xabi Alonsosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.11 pts/game

Head coach

Roberto De Zerbisince 31 Mar 2026 · 15 games · 1.13 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

57%Market 58%

Draw (X)

22%Market 22%

Away win (2)

21%Market 21%

Over 2.5 goals

63%Market 64%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

2.1 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Chelsea 2 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.8%
2. 1 - 19.5%
3. 2 - 08.2%
4. 1 - 07.9%
5. 3 - 16.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Tottenham Hotspur

Goals scored by Chelsea

01234503.94.62.71.10.30.117.99.55.72.30.70.228.29.85.82.30.70.235.66.74.01.60.50.142.93.52.10.80.20.151.21.40.90.30.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Chelsea

Last 5, most recent first

WWLDL

Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 1.6

Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2

Tottenham Hotspur

Last 5, most recent first

WDLDD

Goals per game, for / against1.2 / 1.0

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-2-1

Form and team news

Chelsea

2 W1 D2 L2.0 for1.6 against

Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 per game.

Tottenham Hotspur

1 W3 D1 L1.2 for1.0 against

Tottenham Hotspur have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Chelsea

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeTottenham Hotspur

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester United

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwaySunderland

Next matches of Tottenham Hotspur

24/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayChelsea

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeCrystal Palace

7/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayLeeds United

Our model gives Chelsea win 57%, draw 22%, Tottenham Hotspur win 21%. over 2.5 goals 63%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 2.06 - 1.19. largest gap to the market: Tottenham Hotspur win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.