Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo, 2026-10-24, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Atlético Madrid

VS19:00 GMT

Deportivo

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.14

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MODEL OVER 2.5

61%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

46%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Atlético Madrid 2 - 0 Deportivo

PROBABILITY

12.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atlético Madrid

75%1.331.29

Draw

16%6.235.75

Deportivo

9%11.6310.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Atlético Madrid or draw

91%1.09—

Deportivo or draw

25%4.06—

Either team wins (no draw)

84%1.19—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.211.15

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.674.50

Over 2.5 goals

61%1.641.58

Under 2.5 goals

39%2.552.40

Over 3.5 goals

39%2.602.35

Under 3.5 goals

61%1.631.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

46%2.15—

Not both score (NG)

54%1.87—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER43%

add_circleAtlético Madrid

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.99

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Atlético Madrid

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 8-3

WWWWD

DAVfB Stuttgart1-1

WAEspanyol1-0

WHManchester United2-0

WAAlavés2-1

WHReal Madrid2-1

Deportivo

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · goals 5-7

DLDLD

DHLevante1-1

LAReal Sociedad2-3

DHReal Betis1-1

LHSevilla0-1

DAGetafe1-1

Head-to-head

2026-01-13

Deportivo0 - 1Atlético Madrid

2018-04-01

Atlético Madrid1 - 0Deportivo

2017-11-04

Deportivo0 - 1Atlético Madrid

2017-03-02

Deportivo1 - 1Atlético Madrid

2016-09-25

Atlético Madrid1 - 0Deportivo

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Team comparison

Atlético Madrid

VS

Deportivo

#13Power Index 78.3

Power Ranking

#108Power Index 51.6

€704m3rd in the league

Squad value

€125m12th in the league

Diego Simeonesince 23 Dec 2011 · 811 games · 1.98 pts/game

Head coach

Antonio Hidalgosince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.76 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

75%Market 76%

Draw (X)

16%Market 15%

Away win (2)

9%Market 8%

Over 2.5 goals

61%Market 61%

Both teams to score

46%Market: —

Expected goals

2.4 - 0.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Atlético Madrid 2 - 0 Deportivo (12.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 012.8%
2. 1 - 010.5%
3. 3 - 010.4%
4. 2 - 19.0%
5. 1 - 17.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Deportivo

Goals scored by Atlético Madrid

01234504.33.01.10.30.00.0110.57.42.60.60.10.0212.89.03.20.80.10.0310.47.42.60.60.10.046.34.51.60.40.10.053.12.20.80.20.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Atlético Madrid

Last 5, most recent first

DWWWW

Goals per game, for / against1.6 / 0.6

Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)4-1-2

Deportivo

Last 5, most recent first

DLDLD

Goals per game, for / against1.0 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-3-1

Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-1

Form and team news

Atlético Madrid

4 W1 D0 L1.6 for0.6 against

Atlético Madrid have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 per game.

Deportivo

0 W3 D2 L1.0 for1.4 against

Deportivo have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Atlético Madrid

24/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeDeportivo

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayLevante

3/11/2026 · UEFA.CHAMPIONSHomeBayern Munich

Next matches of Deportivo

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayAtlético Madrid

2/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeOsasuna

7/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayEspanyol

Our model gives Atlético Madrid win 75%, draw 16%, Deportivo win 9%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 46%. expected goals 2.44 - 0.71. largest gap to the market: Atlético Madrid win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.